9 replies to this topic

[SemiBizz]

Yesterday the perfect setup for an afternoon rally as they trotted out Doug Kass with an intraday bearish article on SubPrime and how it was going to kill the brokers. Bloomberg featured Tice around the same time. In other words, a STRONG BUY signal to Wall Street (This is a no-brainer, it happens every time they put the bears on TV)



Today Goldman Sachs posts blowout earnings in the face of more bad subprime news. Yesterday's volume was the lowest of the year... but wait... the Feds ADDED $7 Billion. I don't see any Fed news yet this morning. I think the add was wrapped in a box that said: " do not open until tomorrow".



Finally there's this: See what happened on another low volume day on 9/8/06? On 9/11/06 they took them down just as they did today and from there it was UP UP and Away... I'm not sure they are going that far this time, but the technique is familiar...

Notice today that yesterday's low has not been tested on all this bearish news...

http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif

Edited by SemiBizz, 13 March 2007 - 09:35 AM.

[selecto]

Its tough in here (for me, anyway). There is a reasonably "right" bearish flag forming, but price momentum looks a lot like "buy."

[selecto]

PS: Complicating this is the weekly momentum:

[pedro]

Semi - I'm with Selecto here. The Sept chart you refer to came soon after an IT upturn had started, so any bear positioning at that time was against the trend. I think the recent 2/27 drop turned that IT trend back down. My eyes are on FXY, and as long as its bullish, I'm market bearish and will be scaling into bear positions. With stops, yes. We have imminent daily MACD bull crossovers everywhere. I believe they will fail. Back kisses around the horn. JMHO. pdl

[SemiBizz]

Volume is dropping off. There are 2 setups here, one is to test Friday's lows and try to spring it, the other is to doji out on low volume like yesterday... trot out a few more bears and spring it. GS is pulling back on lighter volume here. I don't think this exercise is complete without GS testing that 210.


http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif

[paulstan]

I think your approach to volume based analysis is excellent, but in this case is trumped by the high volume "sign of strength" (tim ord) that we saw on the downside a week or so ago. IMO, once the trend changed these bounces will give off many misleading buy signals, the majority will fail badly. The failure of this bounce (if it turns out like I think) will be another indication of a significant change of trend.

[eminimee]

there is a bear trap setting up at 1404/06 on ES june contract.

[SemiBizz]

There's one more possibility for GS here and that is not to test the price and get the volume. That appears to be the case. That's an ugly sign. I am not convinced yet.

I think your approach to volume based analysis is excellent, but in this case is trumped by the high volume "sign of strength" (tim ord) that we saw on the downside a week or so ago.

IMO, once the trend changed these bounces will give off many misleading buy signals, the majority will fail badly. The failure of this bounce (if it turns out like I think) will be another indication of a significant change of trend.

Well I still haven't seen even yesterday's low on Nasdaq broken yet, so I'm skeptical. If you are bearish (and I am) you don't want to see the market going down on light volume... You want to see highs broken on vapor and volume reversals...


I don't see harmony in the market saying we're going DOWN yet, so I'm standing aside...

Edited by SemiBizz, 13 March 2007 - 11:10 AM.

[paulstan]

I generally agree -- but I've also seen plenty of instances where an intermediate trend change has occurred with relatively low volume -- as I recall this past summer low saw the upmove start with light volume. So, I think price is the primary metric, and volume is a strong confirming indicator. I'm not concerned here if we trend down on light volume -- the volume will quickly build I suspect with each passing day -- and will likely have a climactic bottom in the coming weeks (for another bounce, then more downside).

[SemiBizz]

I generally agree -- but I've also seen plenty of instances where an intermediate trend change has occurred with relatively low volume -- as I recall this past summer low saw the upmove start with light volume. So, I think price is the primary metric, and volume is a strong confirming indicator. I'm not concerned here if we trend down on light volume -- the volume will quickly build I suspect with each passing day -- and will likely have a climactic bottom in the coming weeks (for another bounce, then more downside).

30 min volume just DOUBLED going down here candle to candle.... Nasdaq.