8 replies to this topic

[Tor]

Many thanks. I am not good enough to make such calls but I do think we have the ingredients in place for such a situaiotn. Ie currency moves, collpasing housing, margin debt etc. To be clear however, i see lower lows into june then possibly a new high after that. Thanks.

Edited by Tor, 13 March 2007 - 04:30 PM.

[ed rader]

Many thanks.

I am not good enough to make such calls but I do think we have the ingredients in place for such a situaiotn. Ie currency moves, collpasing housing, margin debt etc.

To be clear however, i see lower lows into june then possibly a new high after that. Thanks.

no, i've seen the term beartrap used several times today so this must be the beginning of a successful retest which will form a launching pad for the next leg up...snoooort .

ed rader

Edited by ed rader, 13 March 2007 - 04:40 PM.

[eminimee]

not until October...a crashette

[A-ha]

No one can predict the exact moment of a crash. No one ever did. But those who could have traded the biggest crashes in history positioned themselves ahead of the moves. Whether it was the stock market or currencies.. Doesnt matter. If I make a poll now to get honest answers, I am %100 confident that only a very few should be able to trade today's move to full extend. Just like the first day. What I just told you folks yesterday here was exactly the same as what I told before the big plunge. Only very few will be able to trade this move. And I guarantee you if we get another one tomorrow, absolutely nothing will be different. Unfortunately most of the people still believe very wrong teachings of street wisdom and can not distinguish the correction from the first trust, the trend from consolidation, and naturally the top picking from trend trading. That makes one hell of a market...

[jawndissedi]

No one can predict the exact moment of a crash. No one ever did. But those who could have traded the biggest crashes in history positioned themselves ahead of the moves. Whether it was the stock market or currencies.. Doesnt matter.



If I make a poll now to get honest answers, I am %100 confident that only a very few should be able to trade today's move to full extend. Just like the first day.

What I just told you folks yesterday here was exactly the same as what I told before the big plunge.
Only very few will be able to trade this move.

And I guarantee you if we get another one tomorrow, absolutely nothing will be different.

Unfortunately most of the people still believe very wrong teachings of street wisdom and can not distinguish the correction from the first trust, the trend from consolidation, and naturally the top picking from trend trading.

That makes one hell of a market...

It's not on your signature list, but I'm assuming you're still short HGX. That was a classic "go with" trade ~240 -- very difficult for someone like me to do, but a pleasure to see someone else execute so perfectly.

[A-ha]

Yes I am short home builders, semis and a bunch of internets... My signature couldnt take them all ..

[pdx5]

Crash not possible with SPX forward P/E near 16. I am looking for a step-ladder decline under 1300. Then a 50% to 60% retrace advance during summer.

[sherholmes]

Crash not possible with SPX forward P/E near 16.
I am looking for a step-ladder decline under 1300.
Then a 50% to 60% retrace advance during summer.

How reliable are those forward earnings estimates now?

[humble1]

they are TOTALLY WORTHLESS, as you imply ! just take a look at how much of the eanrings are financials plus based on mortgage and lending (as in retail companies). and remember, the indemnification of the packaged loans is only as good as the indemnifier. how good could the new century guarantees be ? i think countrywide is only a few months behind, too. many of what they call alt-a loans are really subprime.

Edited by humble1, 14 March 2007 - 10:29 AM.