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[Rogerdodger]

This pattern looks a bit like May-June.
Except for today's volume...
Tomorrow might be June 6th, which just slowed the decline into the next down leg.

[jawndissedi]

The hot button money is long, Roger, very, very long:

March 13, 2007. Most notable in the past week (and the week before) was the sharp jump in equity exposure among Managed Futures (CTA) hedge funds, as reported Friday in our Hedge Fund Analytix, and cited this week in Barron's. This expansion first appeared in the February 27 sell-off, which we discounted heavily as a statistical anomaly. But even after suppressing the outlier effects of Feb 27, the CTA exposure path has risen doggedly in ensuing days. So our initial skepticism about the run-up has been overcome by its daily persistence.

In the past, high exposure (at or above the 80th percentile) has led to subsequent market weakness, as we have demonstrated graphically and statistically in various analyses and writings. The exposure path now stands at a record high (100th percentile), which may stand as a "hyper" indicator of immediate over-bullishness...or may need to cool off somewhat before negative implications emerge. Either way, the indication is a negative.