6 replies to this topic

[Rogerdodger]

March 5th was the SPX low so far.
We had 91% down volume, 80% declining issues.
The next day we had a huge 20+ point rally!

Today we had 94% down volume, and 80% declining issues.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 13 March 2007 - 11:40 PM.

[traderpaul]

March 5th was the SPX low so far.
We had 91% down volume, 80% declining issues.
The next day we had a huge rally!

Today we had 94% down volume, and 80% declining issues.

Not sure that you are reading the tape right.....Down on heavy volume .....Up on light volume.....Down on heavy volume again and up on light volume again.....Is that bullish?.....

[ogm]

Its all very simple. We had a big exhaustion rally at the end of the bull market trend. That lasted several month. Now a big era has come to an end. The loose mortgage lending practices are no more. and thats why the market is selling. Techinicals are horrendous. almost a 3 bil day on the Naz, 2+ bil on NYSE.. 90% down volume. Summations pointed down, if you look at 60 min charts, we bounced down exactly from the moving averages. All rallies for now will be stopped there. The times are changing. Tomorrow is a big down day.

Edited by ogm, 14 March 2007 - 12:00 AM.

[Rogerdodger]

Tomorrow is a big down day.

Lower looks obvious but often these extreme readings set up bear traps.
Lots here are fully short tonight. Majority are bearish.

Sure, I expect the VIX to tag that upper BB at a higher level (at lower prices).
But they can make it tricky. Notice the action in May.
After the first wave up the VIX pulled back to the median line then gave us a big white candle like today's.
Then we actually got a higher high price to get more bulled up... then that failed.
Of course if it's a "waterfall decline", as Gene Inger opined, then all bets are off.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=p75881869177&a=27927380&r=6657.png

Edited by Rogerdodger, 14 March 2007 - 12:18 AM.

[arbman]

Rodger, by my measures, there were equally as much retail buying as selling over the past 2 wks, while the firms increased their short selling... Nobody mentions here is though the tech stocks are a lot more resilient than I expected them to be. In the previous market declines since 2003, the tech stocks got much more volatility everytime the large composite indices showed about 1+% declines. I think the tech stocks are making a very strong bottom as the financials and the consumer discretionary type stocks are slowly underperforming, this might not be applicable now, but it is inline with the long term sector cycle (2+ yrs)... - kisa

[traderpaul]

Nobody mentions here is though the tech stocks are a lot more resilient than I expected them to be.

I think the tech stocks are making a very strong bottom as the financials and the consumer discretionary type stocks are slowly underperforming, this might not be applicable now, but it is inline with the long term sector cycle (2+ yrs)...

- kisa

Kisa, They were to busy selling the financials .....The next stage will be the techs.....

[arbman]

Kisa, They were to busy selling the financials .....The next stage will be the techs.....

Maybe, but the tech bottomed a month later than the other senior indices last summer. I think a lot of the capitulation happened there, although there is more downside in the months ahead, I will not be surprised if the tech underperforms the declines...