8 replies to this topic

[Russ]

Argument is that looking back into the 1800's until now shows that commodity booms usually last at least 20 years and the stock market has done poorly during such periods. The rally over the past year while the commodities are correcting is just a temporary aberration in GannGlobal's view. Is it going to be different this time?
Well worth watching Video Link:
http://gannglobal.co...g=140&kbid=1444

[Cirrus]

The 'CRB' is not the best ratio to gauge commodities these days, IMO. It's been jinkered with the past few years.

[Russ]

The 'CRB' is not the best ratio to gauge commodities these days, IMO. It's been jinkered with the past few years.

What in your view is better? There is no getting around the fact that commodity inflation has been strong since 1999 as shown on this chart, if there is a better measure is it really going to change gann global's argument?

[Cirrus]

I use the GS's commodity groups.... Stockchart symbols: $GKX: Agriculture $GJX: Energy $GYX: Industrial Metals $GVX: Livestock $GPX: Precious Metals It gives me a little better idea of what's going on inside commodities. They've tinkered with the CRB as far as arithmetic vs geometric weightings.

[Russ]

OK, thanks. Yours breaks it down more into sectors but if they have changed the math in crb that is still not an argument against the gann viewpoint.

I use the GS's commodity groups....

Stockchart symbols:
$GKX: Agriculture
$GJX: Energy
$GYX: Industrial Metals
$GVX: Livestock
$GPX: Precious Metals

It gives me a little better idea of what's going on inside commodities. They've tinkered with the CRB as far as arithmetic vs geometric weightings.

[Cirrus]

Russ....I appologize. I wasn't arguing against your viewpoint. I actually think the Gann stuff is nifty. I just don't use the CRB much anymore to track commodities. I should have probably not responded as your first post was a great one.

[HiFiGuy]

Russ,
Thanks for posting the Gann video.

For commodities, use $CCI. This is basically the old $CRB, before they started monkeying with it and overweighting it to oil.
Notice how its still in a bull market whereas the $CRB is broken. Also note how they really became disconnected in the months leading up to the Nov 2006 elections. Coincidental? you decide.

The previous version of the Reuters CRB will be renamed the “Continuous Commodity Index” and will be made available for trading under the symbol “CI” after the close of business on June 17th, 2005. All outstanding open positions in the current Index will be rolled into the new product and trade under the symbol “CR”. The Exchange will continue to list new months for the CCI.

See Full Story

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$CCI&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&i=t31863922256&r=2896.png

Edited by HiFiGuy, 16 March 2007 - 06:54 PM.

[Russ]

Great info Hifiguy, It certainly looks like manipulation, a broker friend of mine says the repubs dumped oil from the stategic reserve onto the market just before the elections.

[quote name='HiFiGuy' date='Mar 16 2007, 06:50 PM' post='277610']
Russ,
Thanks for posting the Gann video.

For commodities, use $CCI. This is basically the old $CRB, before they started monkeying with it and overweighting it to oil.
Notice how its still in a bull market whereas the $CRB is broken. Also note how they really became disconnected in the months leading up to the Nov 2006 elections. Coincidental? you decide.

The previous version of the Reuters CRB will be renamed the “Continuous Commodity Index” and will be made available for trading under the symbol “CI” after the close of business on June 17th, 2005. All outstanding open positions in the current Index will be rolled into the new product and trade under the symbol “CR”. The Exchange will continue to list new months for the CCI.

[HiFiGuy]

Russ, when I discovered $CCI a couple of months ago, my jaw dropped, and I lost what little faith I had in government statistics and Wall Street ethics. Notice this change occured when Jefferies became involved in its weightings. Everything's manipulated - believe nothing. Cheers.