8 replies to this topic

[Rogerdodger]

Seems like this is the one to watch:

From John Murphy's Market Message:
FINANCIALS HOLD THE KEY TO THE MARKET
"The ratio of the Financials Select SPDR (XLF) divided by the S&P 50 ratio peaked in October of last year, and failed to confirm this year's move to new high ground (red arrow). Even worse, the ratio has fallen to the lowest level since last May. The group itself is now in the process of testing some long-term support lines. One is the 200-day moving average. That support line line hasn't been decisively broken for eighteen months (red circles). Chart 10 shows the XLF also testing a four-year uptrend line (drawn on a log scale). Chart 10 holds some other warnings. One is the unusually heavy downside volume over the last month. Another is the fact that the 14-month RSI is turning down from major overbought territory over 70 (down arrow). The financial sector is undergoing a major test of its long-term uptrend. That's a big test for the rest of the market as well."

http://stockcharts.c...20149&r=909.png

[airedale88]

Seems like this is the one to watch:

From John Murphy's Market Message:
FINANCIALS HOLD THE KEY TO THE MARKET
"The ratio of the Financials Select SPDR (XLF) divided by the S&P 50 ratio peaked in October of last year, and failed to confirm this year's move to new high ground (red arrow). Even worse, the ratio has fallen to the lowest level since last May. The group itself is now in the process of testing some long-term support lines. One is the 200-day moving average. That support line line hasn't been decisively broken for eighteen months (red circles). Chart 10 shows the XLF also testing a four-year uptrend line (drawn on a log scale). Chart 10 holds some other warnings. One is the unusually heavy downside volume over the last month. Another is the fact that the 14-month RSI is turning down from major overbought territory over 70 (down arrow). The financial sector is undergoing a major test of its long-term uptrend. That's a big test for the rest of the market as well."

http://stockcharts.c...20149&r=909.png

right on scedule for the nominal 20 wk cycle low........

[Russ]

8.6 year cycle is very likely to overpower a mere 20 week cycle. The bottom should show up in about 3-4 more weeks minimum.

[airedale88]

8.6 year cycle is very likely to overpower a mere 20 week cycle. The bottom should show up in about 3-4 more weeks minimum.

russ, lotsa of different cycle theories. Hurst's uses harmonic cycles. the next larger cycle after the 4.5 yr cycle (48 to 54 months) is the nominal 9 yr cycle (96 to 108 months) and it's last bottom was at the march 03 low, same as the last 4.5 yr cycle. the 18 yr cycle also bottomed at that time. that's a big part of the reason we see high right translations on the major cycles this close to the next 4.5 yr low, due by july. both the 9 yr and 18 yr are providing strong cyclic uptrend, limiting the downside energy of the 4.5 yr cycle.

Edited by airedale88, 19 March 2007 - 12:35 AM.

[Russ]

How many cycles can you name that hit to the day (as the 8.6 pi just did on Feb.27) causing 10-20% declines on many different instances and predicted decades ahead. We'll see, I won't be surprised if the 20 wk is pushed aside, just as a large ocean wave overcomes a smaller wave.

BTW...my family used to breed airedales and they are good natured dogs now, in the distant past they were much more fierce and were used for police work, lion hunting etc. , but they bred that agression out of the airedale...its now just a sweet family dog.

8.6 year cycle is very likely to overpower a mere 20 week cycle. The bottom should show up in about 3-4 more weeks minimum.

russ, lotsa of different cycle theories. Hurst's uses harmonic cycles. the next larger cycle after the 4.5 yr cycle (48 to 54 months) is the nominal 9 yr cycle (96 to 108 months) and it's last bottom was at the march 03 low, same as the last 4.5 yr cycle. the 18 yr cycle also bottomed at that time. that's a big part of the reason we see high right translations on the major cycles this close to the next 4.5 yr low, due by july. both the 9 yr and 18 yr are providing strong cyclic uptrend, limiting the downside energy of the 4.5 yr cycle.

[airedale88]

russ, some of the show airedales have had the fire bred out of them, the dales i've owned come from working stock that still hunt bear, boar, lion etc. i obedience train them for competition plus to keep them out of trouble. they are quite hard and have no fear. an old partner of mine at a brokerage firm, early 80's, subscribed to armstrong's letter. he did some very interesting work but my partner wasn't that satisfied with it's usefulness for stock and option trading and cancelled after two yrs. i read it a few times but formed no opinion.

[arbman]

The power of the cycles comes out when they overlap each other or resonate, these types of sub-cycles are called the harmonics of a primary cycle. Hurst discovered one of the most resonating market cycles in his work, there is another one, I call it the seasonal cycles, and it also lines up with the quarterly news, but less influential unless there is a fundamental change. The resonating nature of the cycles helps to identify the lows, but they are not as much useful to identify the highs. These are all in Hursts' excellent course notes, although I don't follow his exact footsteps, all of the practical work and principles are there... - kisa

[Russ]

Interesting, I did not know the old breed still existed.

I agree that following Armstrong's daily trading work was hard get money from, the founder of Global Futures Art Smolensky asked Armstrong for an industry standard audit of his trades/recommendations but it was not available.

Nonetheless, I am talking about his now very famous pi cycle which we are in the middle of, there is no way we have seen the bottom yet, bounces are quite possible but the final blood on the streets has not showed up yet...imho. But who knows maybe Hurst is better than Armstrong.

russ, some of the show airedales have had the fire bred out of them, the dales i've owned come from working stock that still hunt bear, boar, lion etc. i obedience train them for competition plus to keep them out of trouble. they are quite hard and have no fear.

an old partner of mine at a brokerage firm, early 80's, subscribed to armstrong's letter. he did some very interesting work but my partner wasn't that satisfied with it's usefulness for stock and option trading and cancelled after two yrs. i read it a few times but formed no opinion.

In this case, a much bigger wave is theoretically being challenged by a relatively short wave which according to 'airedale' has bottomed, as the short wave bounces up the bigger wave should come in and overpower it, causing any rally from it to be terminated prematurely.

The power of the cycles comes out when they overlap each other or resonate, these types of sub-cycles are called the harmonics of a primary cycle. Hurst discovered one of the most resonating market cycles in his work, there is another one, I call it the seasonal cycles, and it also lines up with the quarterly news, but less influential unless there is a fundamental change. The resonating nature of the cycles helps to identify the lows, but they are not as much useful to identify the highs. These are all in Hursts' excellent course notes, although I don't follow his exact footsteps, all of the practical work and principles are there...

- kisa

Edited by Russ, 19 March 2007 - 11:51 AM.

[airedale88]

russ, i read parts of your very interesting blog on armstrong. it does seem that even his 4.3 or 8.6 yr pi cycle has had some wiggle room in the past. a sentence in one section i read mentioned "within a year" or something like that. still, armstrongs work is very interesting and when i get some time, i plan to compare his 8.6 and 4.3 cycles to some Hurst stuff. yes, there are breeders of the old working style airedales. many people have taken to calling them Oorang Airedales, after the famous kennel in ohio. Oorang has also come to mean large airedales, though the oorang kennel offered dogs from 45 to 100 lbs, trained for different game or farm work. my last dale had multiple obedience titles and was a 100 lb hammer. my new pup is 1yr 8 months, 90 lbs and doing real well in training. he had to back off a 120 lb cane corso that went after him saturday at a park. wagged his tail the whole time.