2 replies to this topic

[dcengr]

COT futures data is showing massive amounts of shorts piled on. Sentiment is very bearish. I still believe a zig zag A down, so my FF is.. Down today into tuesday, then the B wave will start on wednesday with FOMC. Who knows how much the B wave will carry it... could be back to new highs. But this downturn had people become bearish much faster than previous downturns. B Wave is supposedly the sucker rally, identifiable by weakness in cum A-D as the market goes up, and odd-lot mentality. I'll be on the lookout for this to confirm it. But for now, I still think there's slightly more room to the downside to go.

[dcengr]

Ofcourse, it could go up into Fed, then drop into the final bottom for wave A.. I still think there's a bit more downside to go, down to Dow 11,700-800ish.

The reason I believe this is because the ND small traders loaded up big time here at these prices. Despite the large traders leaning heavily into the short side, my guess is they're going to make the small traders capitulate before turning it around. Also II data is still leaning a bit too bullish here at > 60% bulls. But I could be wrong, and bottom could be here now..

[arbman]

I guess the last Wed did enough damage...