13 replies to this topic

[denleo]

You think today is a good day? Wait for the FED announcement when they say that everything is fine, while printing so much money at the same time that it will propel S&P to new highs. I read 10 articles this weekend about how options picture is very bullish, because everyone is scared. I think they are right. 10 people basically wrote the same article. I hear helicopters. Denleo

[HoseB]

You think today is a good day? Wait for the FED announcement when they say that everything is fine, while printing so much money at the same time that it will propel S&P to new highs.

I read 10 articles this weekend about how options picture is very bullish, because everyone is scared. I think they are right. 10 people basically wrote the same article.

I hear helicopters.

Denleo

Can't be too happy about that. Carried to the extreme, which the Fed is sure to do, means financial armegeddon for the middle class.

[dcengr]

Everyone's expecting the Fed rally... can everyone be right?

[denleo]

FED knows one thing -- how to print money. If the problem is caused by low liquidity, they print money. If the problem is caused by too much liquidity (like now), they also print money. Markets like money. Denleo

[arbman]

FED knows one thing -- how to print money. If the problem is caused by low liquidity, they print money. If the problem is caused by too much liquidity (like now), they also print money. Markets like money.

This is your best quote so far...

[HoseB]

FED knows one thing -- how to print money. If the problem is caused by low liquidity, they print money. If the problem is caused by too much liquidity (like now), they also print money. Markets like money.

Denleo

Right. The Fed will keep printing money (with Gummint's endorsement, of course), until "the balloon goes POP". It will leave poor people still poor, formerly middle-class will be newly poor, most of the "sort-of rich" will also be newly poor, and the official excuse will be, "it's China's fault".

If my wife ever divorces me, I'm going to follow the lead of Jimmy Rogers.... cash-out of America and move to Asia.

Got gold?

Edited by HoseB, 19 March 2007 - 11:48 AM.

[A-ha]

SOX is already in negative and we had an excellent sentiment signal when I am attacked earlier.

[jjc]

You think today is a good day? Wait for the FED announcement when they say that everything is fine, while printing so much money at the same time that it will propel S&P to new highs.

I read 10 articles this weekend about how options picture is very bullish, because everyone is scared. I think they are right. 10 people basically wrote the same article.

I hear helicopters.

Denleo

Stolen without permission from Victor Neiderhoffer's Site
http://www.dailyspec....com/wordpress/

B>G?, from Kim Zussman March 17, 2007 | Leave a Comment
Now that the "too low risk premium" problem has been ameliorated, this week the Fed has an opportunity to stabilize recently volatile markets. Since Bernanke took over the bank, has there been any change in market reaction compared to his predecessor?

Checked weekly SPY returns for weeks which contained FED meetings (dates from FOMC calendar site), and compared returns for the last eight (Bernanke) and the 17 prior back to 1/27/04 (Greenspan):

Two-sample T for Ben rt vs green rt

N Mean StDev SE Mean
Ben rt 8 0.0019 0.0155 0.0055 t=0.4 4/8 pos
green rt 17 -0.0005 0.0128 0.0031 9/17 pos

The difference is not significant, but interestingly while B weeks were positive, G weeks were slightly negative in the period. Here are Green and Ben weeks:

wk start green rt
01/30/06 -0.018
12/12/05 0.006
10/31/05 0.019
09/19/05 -0.017
08/08/05 0.001
06/27/05 0.005
05/02/05 0.012
03/21/05 -0.012
01/31/05 0.024
12/13/04 0.006
11/08/04 0.013
09/20/04 -0.015
08/09/04 0.003
06/28/04 -0.008
05/03/04 -0.009
03/15/04 -0.010
01/26/04 -0.008

wk start Ben rt
01/29/07 0.019
12/11/06 0.007
10/23/06 0.008
09/18/06 -0.004
08/07/06 -0.009
06/26/06 0.023
05/08/06 -0.025
03/27/06 -0.003

[tommyt]

Everyone's expecting the Fed rally... can everyone be right? ISE 10 dayP/C @ 88 CBOE 10day P/C @ 1.30 AAII bears @ 45% slew of bears, you right, they can't all be right

[qqqqtrdr]

Okay the number of Bears, chances of a big crash like 15% is close to zilch. However, fundamentals are not improving, inflation is high. Yes contrarian's on sentiment is very bullish at the moment, but EW and other momentum indicators are still bearish. Contrarian indicators don't always work right away. However, I do plan on buying on contrarian indicators once we are short term oversold and we have one more panic sell-off to build off of. Barry