10 replies to this topic

[denleo]

There is no doubt in my mind that the FED will issue the best possible statement tomorrow. I am long June S&P at 1420. I will exit after the FED. Denleo

[Mr Dev]

There is no doubt in my mind that the FED will issue the best possible statement tomorrow.

I am long June S&P at 1420. I will exit after the FED.

Denleo

Agree,

We'll it is the job of those in charge to almost always put the Positive SPIN on things as opposed to just

being honest.

Greenspan is the only true FED SPEAKER NOW!
You don't walk away after that many years of service and then completely forget how to do your job.

NOW that his hands are untied, he speaks so clearly everyone can understand what it is he has to say !


Regardless of the statement we will be sure to see volatility pick up,...that's not going to be good for the VIX / VXN charts.

Also, as we've seen these announcements play out over the years, do we not usually, if not always, see a run

up in the morning that flattens just to run back to the highs just before the announcement where it then,...

does what it does?... Which in tomorrows case should turn down.?

[Cirrus]

The Fed must keep LT rates low and keep the economy and employment strong to minimize the economic damage of housing and the mortgage sector. They'll have to do this until the US housing market unwinds a bit IMO. Hard to be overly bearish on stocks as a whole in that environment.

[Mr Dev]

The Fed must keep LT rates low and keep the economy and employment strong to minimize the economic damage of housing and the mortgage sector. They'll have to do this until the US housing market unwinds a bit IMO. Hard to be overly bearish on stocks as a whole in that environment.

Cirrus

that's what they should do, but they also think in terms of short term pain, for longer term gain.

I didn't approve of what they did on the way up, and on the way down I don't expect them to be anymore

rational or reasonable.

[arbman]

Cirrus, they can keep the rates low or use maximum stimulus, if and only if the USD stays strong and USD will not stay strong unless the foreign demand picks up to accumulate more USD reserves (unlikely) or the debt gets created slower or outright destroyed (more likely). The second one implies more economic slow down, I wonder whether the Fed is looking for this process to happen all by itself until they can not inflate anymore or they will impose some self restraint in printing and gradually cool down the economy... - kisa

[Cirrus]

Interesting thoughts Mr Dev. IMHO they don't have the cajones to cause considerable economic weakness right now. The risk is simply to high for the US consumer/voter given housing. The only possible benefit would lower LT yields that endure for a while longer. Actually I wouldn't be surprised if they continued the liquidity flood while maintaining their "tough stance on inflation and, therefore, rates". They have FCBs to help. I think the biggest reason for the yield curve inversion is massive excess liquidity targetted at the US bond market. Afterall, they have to keep the bond market happy. It seems like they're trying to keep everyone happy these days. I get the feeling like they're cornered here. That's why you send Greenspan out to talk recession one day and another Fed head out to speak of economic strength the next.

Edited by Cirrus, 20 March 2007 - 02:39 PM.

[arbman]

Cirrus, I was thinking the same, thinking that there was no communication at all in between Greenspan and Bernanke is kind of foolish...

[Cirrus]

Cirrus, I was thinking the same, thinking that there was no communication at all in between Greenspan and Bernanke is kind of foolish...

LOL...The big picture is an interesting puzzle. I think you can really follow about a 15 to 17 weekly charts and get a really good picture....

Currencies: Yen/Dollar Canuck/Dollar and Dollar index
Bonds: 10yr yields and credit spreads/or perhaps the chart of a large junk bond fund
Indexes: SPX, DAX and Hand Seng
Others: perhaps GJX and GYX (or all four of the GS commodity groups)
Stock Indexes: perhpas the OSX, XAU, BKX, TRAN, UTIL and QQQQ.

Just some ideas on chart topics...someone can probably come up with a much better grouping than I just did but I watch those closely and a few more anyhow.


Great discussion here...thanks all.

Edited by Cirrus, 20 March 2007 - 03:00 PM.

[Mtrader]

Hey, Japan has been manipulating for years, how bad can it be? Helicopterssssssssssssssssss baby. Plenty of US paper products.

[arbman]

someone can probably come up with a much better grouping than I just did but I watch those closely and a few more anyhow.

Not better, but some of the stuff I watch in a grouping familiar to me...