5 replies to this topic

[arbman]

Let this market spend itself out first, but there is not even a hope for a rate cut here... Short housing, long resources. - kisa

[redfoliage2]

Let this market spend itself out first, but there is not even a hope for a rate cut here...

Short housing, long resources.

- kisa

Doesn't matter what it says, It's said. I just shorted ES.

Edited by redfoliage2, 21 March 2007 - 01:37 PM.

[thespookyone]

Exactly. Hopes for rate cuts are now a mere vapor. It allways takes some explaining to mom and dad what the fed really said, after the spin doctors give it their initial swirl. Commodities taking off, inflation clear as a bell to the Fed. Would not be surprised to hear Bernanke redefine his statement in a few days-to avoid misinterpretation. He is CLEARLY not a dove here.

[arbman]

Look at this clueless media report at the front page of the Yahoo Finance;

Stocks Soar on Fed Economic Statement
Wednesday March 21, 4:51 pm ET
By Tim Paradis, AP Business Writer
Fed Comments on Economy Help Wall Street Shake Some Concerns That Led to February Selloff

NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street rallied sharply Wednesday after an economic assessment by the Federal Reserve ignited hopes that the central bank has warmed to the idea of lowering short-term interest rates.

Where did they ever say they will lower the rates in this FOMC statement?

- kisa

[arbman]

We had the rehearsal of what it would look like to have a bear market or a correction, the real correction will begin when everybody now thinks that it is just over. If you missed the first round down, here is the market giving you a second chance to exit the longs and go to safer assets. I think it is even better than the first one, there are more fundamental reasons and clarity this time and also accompanied buying extremes. The sector leadership is all that matters and I know what the market has been buying since the lows and now Fed just said not so fast to the inflation. A few weeks ago I said there would likely be a 6% first move down and then up until May for the second round. I don't think it will last that long. I would think about one more standard deviation of the monthly averages is all the upside there is from here, but the first lower high and the topping might take two more weeks or so... Good luck, - kisa

[arbman]

I actually think now the topping or whatever might not even take 2 wks, we might be looking at few days here, but for now I will give the benefit of the doubt to the liquidity still out there and hold off to see some follow through of today's action tomorrow and Monday... - kisa