13 replies to this topic

[dcengr]

Yes the Ben thing was a sure thing, whether he meant it or not, the last few times Ben came on, its trained the masses to buy with both fists.

Now no one thinks we're raising rates, or so the media said so.

This RSI2 signal on the Qs has been 70% profitable. Well, it registered a sell today.

I see from the polls, many went long today.

I have mixed feelings on this signal. I think Wave B has started, which means we could test the highs. I'm still looking for evidence its Wave B tho. One way to tell is if it breaches highs while AD cum lags. Another is if odd-lot buying sky rockets. There's no strong evidence of either.

What I posted before was that last week, people went heavily short futures, and looks like many bailed on armageddon scenario.

So I have a bullish leaning, but the signal is fairly clean.. RSI2 sell is active as of today.



Position Symbol Shares Entry Date Entry Price Exit Date Exit Price % Change Net Profit Bars Held Profit/Bar Entry Signal Exit Signal Cum Profit MAE % MFE %
Short QQQQ 1,808 04/26/99 56.59 04/27/99 55.72 1.52 1,551.53 1 1,551.53 1,551.53 -1.23 2.79
Short QQQQ 1,816 06/21/99 56.71 06/22/99 55.00 3.00 3,091.17 1 3,091.17 4,642.70 -0.68 3.02
Short QQQQ 1,735 07/01/99 58.02 07/06/99 58.38 -0.64 -639.73 2 -319.87 4,002.97 -2.83 0.03
Short QQQQ 1,644 07/16/99 61.38 07/19/99 60.75 1.00 1,011.50 1 1,011.50 5,014.47 -0.41 1.41
Short QQQQ 1,661 08/25/99 61.50 08/26/99 60.48 1.65 1,684.03 1 1,684.03 6,698.50 -0.36 1.82
Short QQQQ 1,613 10/06/99 63.24 10/12/99 63.19 0.07 71.91 4 17.98 6,770.41 -2.71 1.96
Short QQQQ 1,498 11/04/99 67.50 11/17/99 72.88 -7.98 -8,067.75 9 -896.42 -1,297.34 -9.95 0.00
Short QQQQ 1,194 12/20/99 84.88 12/28/99 89.19 -5.10 -5,165.13 5 -1,033.03 -6,462.46 -10.25 0.28
Short QQQQ 1,047 01/21/00 96.25 01/24/00 91.25 5.18 5,219.00 1 5,219.00 -1,243.46 -1.43 5.49
Short QQQQ 1,032 02/07/00 98.41 02/09/00 99.00 -0.62 -628.49 2 -314.25 -1,871.95 -3.91 0.00
Short QQQQ 1,016 06/21/00 98.69 06/22/00 94.77 3.96 3,968.76 1 3,968.76 2,096.80 -0.32 3.97
Short QQQQ 994 07/17/00 101.44 07/18/00 99.25 2.14 2,158.88 1 2,158.88 4,255.68 0.00 3.04
Short QQQQ 1,011 08/31/00 101.88 09/05/00 99.52 2.30 2,368.95 2 1,184.48 6,624.63 -1.61 2.41
Short QQQQ 2,439 04/12/01 42.80 04/16/01 40.25 5.94 6,203.45 1 6,203.45 12,828.08 0.00 6.40
Short QQQQ 2,082 05/21/01 51.05 05/23/01 48.65 4.69 4,980.80 2 2,490.40 17,808.87 -1.76 4.72
Short QQQQ 2,284 06/28/01 44.35 07/05/01 43.45 2.01 2,039.59 4 509.90 19,848.46 -4.89 2.03
Short QQQQ 3,195 10/05/01 31.76 10/09/01 31.09 2.09 2,124.65 2 1,062.33 21,973.12 -1.86 2.80
Short QQQQ 2,826 10/25/01 36.80 10/26/01 36.01 2.13 2,216.54 1 2,216.54 24,189.66 -0.71 2.15
Short QQQQ 2,720 11/06/01 38.19 11/08/01 37.75 1.14 1,180.80 2 590.40 25,370.46 -3.17 2.46
Short QQQQ 2,654 03/08/02 38.67 03/12/02 38.00 1.72 1,762.18 2 881.09 27,132.63 -1.34 3.49
Short QQQQ 4,500 10/14/02 22.48 10/16/02 22.78 -1.35 -1,366.01 2 -683.00 25,766.63 -5.13 1.82
Short QQQQ 3,861 11/05/02 26.10 11/07/02 25.54 2.13 2,146.16 2 1,073.08 27,912.78 -1.95 3.03
Short QQQQ 3,799 01/07/03 26.65 01/08/03 25.90 2.80 2,833.25 1 2,833.25 30,746.03 -1.20 3.04
Short QQQQ 3,888 03/17/03 26.60 03/24/03 26.04 2.09 2,161.28 5 432.26 32,907.31 -4.36 2.37
Short QQQQ 3,715 04/22/03 27.43 04/25/03 26.95 1.73 1,767.20 3 589.07 34,674.51 -1.17 2.08
Short QQQQ 3,426 05/29/03 29.31 06/02/03 29.58 -0.94 -941.02 2 -470.51 33,733.49 -3.04 0.00
Short QQQQ 3,287 06/05/03 30.64 06/06/03 30.13 1.65 1,660.37 1 1,660.37 35,393.86 -2.71 2.02
Short QQQQ 3,208 08/18/03 31.97 08/22/03 32.44 -1.49 -1,523.76 4 -380.94 33,870.10 -4.38 0.39
Short QQQQ 3,022 08/29/03 33.39 09/05/03 33.94 -1.66 -1,678.10 4 -419.52 32,192.00 -2.85 0.78
Short QQQQ 2,904 10/07/03 34.65 10/08/03 34.43 0.62 622.88 1 622.88 32,814.89 -0.55 1.24
Short QQQQ 2,838 10/14/03 35.33 10/15/03 35.18 0.41 409.70 1 409.70 33,224.59 -1.47 0.85
Short QQQQ 2,826 12/01/03 35.90 12/02/03 35.70 0.54 549.20 1 549.20 33,773.79 -0.42 0.89
Short QQQQ 2,678 01/07/04 37.68 01/09/04 37.73 -0.15 -149.90 2 -74.95 33,623.89 -1.78 0.24
Short QQQQ 2,695 04/05/04 37.45 04/06/04 36.98 1.24 1,250.65 1 1,250.65 34,874.55 0.00 1.42
Short QQQQ 2,836 05/25/04 35.96 06/02/04 36.42 -1.29 -1,320.56 5 -264.11 33,553.99 -1.95 0.42
Short QQQQ 2,811 09/14/04 35.63 09/15/04 35.25 1.04 1,043.75 1 1,043.75 34,597.74 0.00 1.49
Short QQQQ 2,770 10/04/04 36.31 10/07/04 36.24 0.19 186.20 3 62.07 34,783.95 -1.75 0.56
Short QQQQ 2,691 11/03/04 37.41 11/10/04 37.79 -1.03 -1,038.58 5 -207.72 33,745.36 -2.00 0.80
Short QQQQ 2,587 11/15/04 38.83 11/16/04 38.59 0.59 597.13 1 597.13 34,342.49 0.00 1.31
Short QQQQ 2,496 12/03/04 40.13 12/07/04 39.58 1.35 1,356.80 2 678.40 35,699.29 -0.92 1.50
Short QQQQ 2,799 05/05/05 35.76 05/10/05 35.77 -0.03 -32.80 3 -10.93 35,666.49 -0.84 0.39
Short QQQQ 2,741 05/17/05 36.70 05/25/05 37.81 -3.04 -3,058.51 6 -509.75 32,607.98 -3.54 0.00
Short QQQQ 2,623 07/12/05 38.30 07/18/05 38.73 -1.15 -1,151.77 4 -287.94 31,456.21 -1.83 0.34
Short QQQQ 2,524 09/12/05 39.73 09/13/05 39.63 0.24 236.40 1 236.40 31,692.61 -0.45 0.48
Short QQQQ 2,534 10/03/05 39.56 10/04/05 39.30 0.64 642.85 1 642.85 32,335.46 -0.81 0.68
Short QQQQ 2,504 11/04/05 40.08 11/15/05 40.52 -1.11 -1,117.76 7 -159.68 31,217.70 -2.09 0.40
Short QQQQ 2,413 11/21/05 41.55 11/28/05 41.54 0.01 5.71 4 1.43 31,223.42 -1.13 0.45
Short QQQQ 2,385 01/06/06 42.68 01/12/06 43.00 -0.77 -779.20 4 -194.80 30,444.22 -1.48 0.37
Short QQQQ 2,347 04/06/06 42.73 04/07/06 42.32 0.94 946.27 1 946.27 31,390.49 -0.75 1.01
Short QQQQ 2,592 08/17/06 38.73 08/21/06 38.42 0.78 787.52 2 393.76 32,178.01 -0.26 1.21
Short QQQQ 2,582 08/30/06 38.91 09/06/06 38.67 0.60 603.68 4 150.92 32,781.70 -1.46 0.77
Short QQQQ 2,503 09/14/06 39.99 09/19/06 39.85 0.33 334.43 3 111.48 33,116.13 -1.18 1.18
Short QQQQ 2,357 10/16/06 42.45 10/17/06 42.00 1.04 1,044.65 1 1,044.65 34,160.78 0.00 1.63
Short QQQQ 2,276 11/15/06 44.11 11/27/06 43.66 1.00 1,008.20 7 144.03 35,168.98 -1.70 1.07
Short QQQQ 2,241 01/11/07 45.08 01/17/07 44.91 0.36 364.97 3 121.66 35,533.95 -0.71 0.55
Short QQQQ 2,295 03/21/07 44.42 Open Open -0.01 -8.00 1 -8.00 35,525.95 0.00 0.00

[jjc]

For what it's worth: I have a strong sell signal active on ES; Target around 1436.5 - 1427.50; And I am actively in the trade.

With this particular signal, after the trip down, things are typically a solid buy.

For what it's worth: I have a strong sell signal active on ES; Target around 1436.5 - 1427.50; And I am actively in the trade.

With this particular signal, after the trip down, things are typically a solid buy.

typo (freudian?): that is 1436.5 - 1437.5

[qqqqtrdr]

I have reliable signal that I use that says to exit longs short term (next couple of days) It is 80% accurate that upside in limited in the short term, so from it we shouldn't go higher here. That does not mean it is a good shorting opportunity it just says go to cash if you are long..... Barry

[jjc]

I have reliable signal that I use that says to exit longs short term (next couple of days) It is 80% accurate that upside in limited in the short term, so from it we shouldn't go higher here. That does not mean it is a good shorting opportunity it just says go to cash if you are long.....

Barry

Barry,
Thanks for the post.

I'm a bit fuzzy on what 80% accurate means, however the historic performance on the trade I'm in
is around 80% wins, average profit/max drawdown ~ .7, I suspect we are both seeing the same animal and my approach is just a bit more aggressive on the short side.

jjc

[Rich]

The market is (short-term) overbought. We're bound to have some profit taking tomorrow. Rich

[jjc]

The market is (short-term) overbought. We're bound to have some profit taking tomorrow.

Rich

Yes. Short here is counter trend.

[qqqqtrdr]

I have reliable signal that I use that says to exit longs short term (next couple of days) It is 80% accurate that upside in limited in the short term, so from it we shouldn't go higher here. That does not mean it is a good shorting opportunity it just says go to cash if you are long.....

Barry

Barry,
Thanks for the post.

I'm a bit fuzzy on what 80% accurate means, however the historic performance on the trade I'm in
is around 80% wins, average profit/max drawdown ~ .7, I suspect we are both seeing the same animal and my approach is just a bit more aggressive on the short side.

jjc

80% accurate means that the signal I'm looking at is 1 out of 5 times right to pick a short term high ( this would be a high for 5 trading days )

[jjc]

I have reliable signal that I use that says to exit longs short term (next couple of days) It is 80% accurate that upside in limited in the short term, so from it we shouldn't go higher here. That does not mean it is a good shorting opportunity it just says go to cash if you are long.....

Barry

Barry,
Thanks for the post.

I'm a bit fuzzy on what 80% accurate means, however the historic performance on the trade I'm in
is around 80% wins, average profit/max drawdown ~ .7, I suspect we are both seeing the same animal and my approach is just a bit more aggressive on the short side.

jjc

80% accurate means that the signal I'm looking at is 1 out of 5 times right to pick a short term high ( this would be a high for 5 trading days )

I would have thought it meant 4 out 5 times right at picking a short term high.... or perhaps 1 out of 5
times right at predicting a higher high to come in the short term.

[qqqqtrdr]

I have reliable signal that I use that says to exit longs short term (next couple of days) It is 80% accurate that upside in limited in the short term, so from it we shouldn't go higher here. That does not mean it is a good shorting opportunity it just says go to cash if you are long.....

Barry

Barry,
Thanks for the post.

I'm a bit fuzzy on what 80% accurate means, however the historic performance on the trade I'm in
is around 80% wins, average profit/max drawdown ~ .7, I suspect we are both seeing the same animal and my approach is just a bit more aggressive on the short side.

jjc

80% accurate means that the signal I'm looking at is 1 out of 5 times right to pick a short term high ( this would be a high for 5 trading days )

I would have thought it meant 4 out 5 times right at picking a short term high.... or perhaps 1 out of 5
times right at predicting a higher high to come in the short term.

I must get my kids down and go to bed myself. Yes 4 out of 5 times. Thanks for keeping me straight.....

[dcengr]

One should be careful using this signal here.. because the market did a larger than normal % drop, hence it recovered just as fast. In situations like this, I wouldn't call it a normal scenario, and thus these signals may not work for high sigma events.