2 replies to this topic

[SemiBizz]

Well, we can all pontificate and speculate about the market and the economy and where that will lead the market... That's all speculation. We're just a few trading days away from a real resolution. We've all seen the market struggle all the way and in particular the Nasdaq. We had a nasty retracement that started in May that ended in July with a low volume upthrust that last for months as the fundamentals evidentally deteriorated. We're just a few days away from a real decision as to where this market wants to go. Today was the first day the Fed even hinted they are in a mood to do anything but raise rates. Let's review what happened the Fed finally eased up back on 1/3/01. I think you'll find the prices familiar, at least looking at the Nasdaq.

http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif

What this chart shows is the effects of a Fed Move, a 1 percent cut after the Presidential Election Fiasco of 2000. We don't have a Fed cut yet, but this is what might happen. Right now we have speculation of a rate cut. You can see 1/3/01... the range that day on NAS was open at 2251 and closed at 2618. Yes...367 points in a day. We had a little microcosm of that skullduggery this afternoon, didn't we? My point is this, after they announced the rate cut the rally did get out of hand but eventually it all fell back to Earth. But in the meantime they ran the market up big time. We are just 75 pts away from making a new Nasdaq High for 2007....
Posted Yesterday:

The way I see it, Nasdaq must close the month inside the 2353 high of Mar 06, or chalk another one up for the bulls. The way it works is that if they can't break them DOWN, then they are going to take them UP. The bar is fairly low at this point, there are 8 trading days left in March, if the bulls can take the Nasdaq to a new high the correction is quite over and a sign of strength is in place.

I could see a continuation of the rally that started today and a FAST UPTREND continuing into a new high, perhaps even before the week is out. The key to understanding FAST UPTREND is shallow retracement. So if we see deep, this isn't what we are looking at. Deep meaning probably exceeding a .382. So there we are, definition. If the Nasdaq dumps here for any reason, the target is 2394. In the meantime, until proven otherwise the Nasdaq should make a new high, quick.

I guess the point about politics and religion is to be agnostic here and make the market prove to you what it wants to do...

Edited by SemiBizz, 21 March 2007 - 09:16 PM.

[redfoliage2]

With high PPI and CPI just out and plunging USD, don't even dream a rate cut. People believe a rate cut on the horizone at this moment is cheating on themselves.

[wyocowboy]

Don't need a rate cut. Stocks are cheap right now - money seeks the best return. Change is always a sure bet - but at the moment earnings yield versus bond yield computes to the market being 20% undervalued.