5 replies to this topic

[airedale88]

SPX met and overshot slightly (bullish for overall trend determination) the 1426 +/- 6.2 pts nominal 5 wk target i posted tuesday. no higher projection (the next would be the nominal 10 wk cycle projection, see chart below) has been generated. SPX would have to rise to the low to mid 1450's over the next few days for a 10 wk cycle upside projection to generate. i expect a pullback/consolidation, time enough for the 10 wk cycle projection line to turn down and then be crossed for a projection target, most likely next week. closed half of es's for + 36.25 handles. will leave half on in case my analysis is wrong about a consolidation. will look to re enter on a short term cycle low.





SPX, though exceeding the 5 wk projection by approx 5 pts (bullish), is not in an area to break out above the next longer cycle projection line shown..



btw, don't know if it was posted, we had a 9 to 1 up volume day on NYSE
and NASD got pretty darn close to one also. that's the second 9 to 1. check out mortiz's stats on two 9 to 1 days over on technicalwatch.com.

Edited by airedale88, 21 March 2007 - 11:02 PM.

[airedale88]

SPX chart with 2% and 4% envelopes. may pause here at the upper 2% envelope vicinity.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p98480630101&r=8954.png

[Russ]

Are you showing anything for April 11? I have a low projection for the Gold Bugs Index then.

[The End]

Great trade Airdale88.

[airedale88]

Are you showing anything for April 11? I have a low projection for the Gold Bugs Index then.

Russ, no, i see nothing indicating any important cycle low for $HUI around that date.

[airedale88]

SPX chart with 2% and 4% envelopes. may pause here at the upper 2% envelope vicinity.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p98480630101&r=8954.png

by the middle of next week those envelopes (based on a 21 day simple mv.avg.) will turn back up, unless the market goes to hell real quick ( zero probability IMHO). by the end of next week, the market will be in the area for a crossing of the cycle projection line on the other chart. that may be the point when a resumption of the uptrend starts. it's also the area for a nominal 2.5 wk cycle low to bottom and turn up.

choppy action till then could embolden those of bearish leanings.