16 replies to this topic

[S.I.M.O.N.]

Drop em all off at the wrong station then make a U-turn.



http://www.schaeffer...s/rydex_nu.aspx

[arbman]

Yes pif, the majority can never win in an environment where the gov't keeps intervening under the table for the benefit of the big businesses and exchange elites and they'll keep preventing the significant market corrections from occuring until the bagholders get fully loaded again. A real market bottom would see the growth issues leading here, not the commodities, they clearly inflated somehow. The problem is I can not find their tracks in the public information. This makes me very uncomfortable, because there is no order to this market, it is a casino. Will there be a day of reckoning for them? Maybe one day, especially if the faith in the USD disappears and they can't find the money to turn the markets magically. The date Feb 28th, the day after the big decline was such a day, it was a day when the operators could not stop the decline and it went on due to the weakness in the USD primarily, however, once the fear declined a bit a week later, the shorts got easily squeezed out in their second attempt... In any case, I gained the wisdom long ago about not to be with the majority when the operators are in control, we reached there around SPX 1365 last week, when the JPY carry trading was fully priced in. I actually think now though these interventions will give great comfort soon that the market is invincible, we can get the real decline then, if the USD continues to be weak... For now, I continue to scalp, as I said there is more market risk now, imho, I will load up the shorts when I see the commodities showing signs of topping since the liquidity is flowing into them and especially the USD remains weak... Simple, eh? - kisa

[Cirrus]

Yes pif, the majority can never win in an environment where the gov't keeps intervening under the table for the benefit of the big businesses and exchange elites and they'll keep preventing the significant market corrections from occuring until the bagholders get fully loaded again.

A real market bottom would see the growth issues leading here, not the commodities, they clearly inflated somehow. The problem is I can not find their tracks in the public information. This makes me very uncomfortable, because there is no order to this market, it is a casino.

Will there be a day of reckoning for them? Maybe one day, especially if the faith in the USD disappears and they can't find the money to turn the markets magically. The date Feb 28th, the day after the big decline was such a day, it was a day when the operators could not stop the decline and it went on due to the weakness in the USD primarily, however, once the fear declined a bit a week later, the shorts got easily squeezed out in their second attempt...

In any case, I gained the wisdom long ago about not to be with the majority when the operators are in control, we reached there around SPX 1365 last week, when the JPY carry trading was fully priced in. I actually think now though these interventions will give great comfort soon that the market is invincible, we can get the real decline then, if the USD continues to be weak...

For now, I continue to scalp, as I said there is more market risk now, imho, I will load up the shorts when I see the commodities showing signs of topping since the liquidity is flowing into them and especially the USD remains weak...

Simple, eh?
- kisa

kisa,

You summarized a realization I experienced many months ago. There's so much FIAT liquidity out there right now. We also have an unpopular President with elections arriving again in just 18 months. The Republicans will get killed--lose the Presidency and both Houses soundly--if the economy is in bad shape AND Iraq is still going on. We also have a legitamate problem going on with the lower middle through upper middle class right now. It's called housing. It's not a crisis yet but if the Fed were to make a mistake here things could really get ugly. The vast majority of voters own homes/condos/etc (people who actually vote regularly).

The operators will keep everything maxed out through the '08 election. Besides, I think it's a given we have a Democrat in the Oval office at an absolute minimum. Why not hand over a burned out and exhausted economy to the next guy (inflation to stagflation, etc)? I think this housing thing is the most bullish thing out there. The FCBs have been buying paper hand over fist recently and the Fed has maintained its growth channel. The liquidity is affecting LT rates, too, which is necessary to protect against a housing collapse. I won't even mention the orgie of M&A I'm expecting between now and 2008 before this administration leaves office. After they're gone the games will likely end on that front.

My take is we get a real nice move in just about all commodities well into 2008 and then we have a really nasty recession and substantial market decline. I still think the dollar, dollar yen and 10yr yield are the most important things to watch for any major changes. US stocks should do fine but I still see oversees markets outperforming. It's just so hard to be bearish with the operators willing to step up to the plate until the housing situation eases which could take another year or two. Either way the slate will be cleaned for the next guy from late 2008 through 2010, IMHO.

[Mr Dev]

Anyone else get a sell signal before the close? I did and it's usually a good signal but how can I put all my

faith back in all my Signals,... Long Term that is,...with the market defenders always on stand-by
orchestrating their Dips and Pops. Not easy I think you will agree.

I was going to post my own topic asking if anyone else had a signal, but thought I'd read the most recent post first, this one.

Since I really think you guys here, have a clear idea and know how the markets are being played, I'm just posting
my question as well as other thoughts here.

I do have a signal to exit Longs or take an aggressive short. The reason I say aggressive short is because

of the way I see one of the main players who moves this thing is playing their game.

Let me take yesterday and the days leading up to the FOMC for an example of how our own big DYN OTC player,... plays.

If you've watch these large amounts move at RYDEX for any length of time, you already know how it works.

If your keen enough to see patterns on a chart you're certainly keen enough to see "the big ones"
trading pattern.

I have to respect this because I see over and over and over again.

Here how I see "the big one" creating a Short Covering bottom in the market.

Two days before the FOMC announcement on 3/19 push in (+108.5 mil) into the OTC leveraged fund.
Then pull it out (-111.4 mil), the following day or the first day of the meeting....stall things a bit.

Then push all of it back in the afternoon of the FOMC announcement to support the close (+163.1mil).


Know we have to take a little off those numbers for usage from us little guys but there you have it !


Now I'll try and update you on what happens next, but here is what usually happens.

The day after the big surge,.. the markets try and even up their percentage gains just a little and stall out or
even pull back a little for each other. Note the NDX today.

At this time one would probably think the money is sneaking back out just to surge in again, but that's not always the way it happens.

Often, there is another commitment of 35-50mil into the DYN OTC fund just as the market or NDX comes to rest at

some sort of short term trend line created within the last two days. Funny that I often see this on Wednesdays or Thursdays.

Now with the extra add and the short term trend sometimes the market is able to GAP UP the following morning this Friday
as it traps NEW shorts or any slow or late traders that are still holding counter to the move.

I feel that this strategy is one of their best to allow the markets to close positive as we move into the weekend for all to see, read and hear about while off work.

Usually on this trend line momentum break after the Gap the money sneaks back into the Money Market Fund and waits

there again till late Tuesday or Wednesday as it is used for more ammo to challenge the Buys Stops Up at recent Market Highs sometimes by the following Thursday.

That's the way they keep moving this thing higher on thin air while using mostly short covering to move the markets while maintaining their powder whenever they can.

Thanks for listening

Edited by Mr Dev, 22 March 2007 - 05:57 PM.

[PorkLoin]

Kisacik: This makes me very uncomfortable, because there is no order to this market, it is a casino.

I realize it may not work forever, but doesn't it behoove us to "bet on the House," in that case?

Doug

[S.I.M.O.N.]

I do have a signal to exit Longs or take an aggressive short.

as long as that gap looms up above, i would be very careful shorting here, ndx
is now consolidating just below that gap, looks can be decieving but it does appear
as if it wants to close that gap somehow. i think gap fills before any tradeable decline ,jmho ofcourse

[jjc]

Anyone else get a sell signal before the close? I did and it's usually a good signal but how can I put all my

faith back in all my Signals,... Long Term that is,...with the market defenders always on stand-by
orchestrating their Dips and Pops. Not easy I think you will agree.

I was going to post my own topic asking if anyone else had a signal, but thought I'd read the most recent post first, this one.

Since I really think you guys here, have a clear idea and know how the markets are being played, I'm just posting
my question as well as other thoughts here.

I do have a signal to exit Longs or take an aggressive short. The reason I say aggressive short is because

of the way I see one of the main players who moves this thing is playing their game.

Let me take yesterday and the days leading up to the FOMC for an example of how our own big DYN OTC player,... plays.

If you've watch these large amounts move at RYDEX for any length of time, you already know how it works.

If your keen enough to see patterns on a chart you're certainly keen enough to see "the big ones"
trading pattern.

I have to respect this because I see over and over and over again.

Here how I see "the big one" creating a Short Covering bottom in the market.

Two days before the FOMC announcement on 3/19 push in (+108.5 mil) into the OTC leveraged fund.
Then pull it out (-111.4 mil), the following day or the first day of the meeting....stall things a bit.

Then push all of it back in the afternoon of the FOMC announcement to support the close (+163.1mil).


Know we have to take a little off those numbers for usage from us little guys but there you have it !


Now I'll try and update you on what happens next, but here is what usually happens.

The day after the big surge,.. the markets try and even up their percentage gains just a little and stall out or
even pull back a little for each other. Note the NDX today.

At this time one would probably think the money is sneaking back out just to surge in again, but that's not always the way it happens.

Often, there is another commitment of 35-50mil into the DYN OTC fund just as the market or NDX comes to rest at

some sort of short term trend line created within the last two days. Funny that I often see this on Wednesdays or Thursdays.

Now with the extra add and the short term trend sometimes the market is able to GAP UP the following morning this Friday
as it traps NEW shorts or any slow or late traders that are still holding counter to the move.

I feel that this strategy is one of their best to allow the markets to close positive as we move into the weekend for all to see, read and hear about while off work.

Usually on this trend line momentum break after the Gap the money sneaks back into the Money Market Fund and waits

there again till late Tuesday or Wednesday as it is used for more ammo to challenge the Buys Stops Up at recent Market Highs sometimes by the following Thursday.

That's the way they keep moving this thing higher on thin air while using mostly short covering to move the markets while maintaining their powder whenever they can.

Thanks for listening

I don't know that I add anything but here are my comments:
It has been my observation that there are very distinct Days of the week (DOW) patterns in the us stock markets (in fact all markets that I have spent any time looking at have this quark Yen,EC, Gold, Silver; Don't get the wrong impression here I have only been at this for a short time now and I am clearly no expert). With that in mind, I don't know if what your describing is A) the cause of the DOW effect, one of the causes of the DOW effect, or C) Large players gaming the DOW effect to implement a short squeeze.
My guess is C.

It seems plausable that an Institutional black box mech might:
Implement the squeeze by buying a very liquid proxy for all of the stocks in a particular market; Driving
up both good stock (stocks not highly shorted) and bad stocks (stocks with high short interest). Make use
of a very well understood market behavior for a highly trending market to pull back in consolidation to a trend line (or moving average say 20 ema) and form a bull flag to exit the stocks of non-interest and purchase those of stronger fundamentals. Of course in order to do this last step, you have to sell your
liquid proxy.

Although I do not follow RYDEX money flows, I can tell you that what your describing sounds very familiar...
...gaps in a particular direction on a particular DOW after a consolidation of a strong trend.

I don't have a sell signal active.... Friday afternoon is an easy time to push around the market. But it seems we would need more fear in the system to create another squeeze, but then again what do I know.


And finally a question for kisa; Does your comment above mean you think the FED is increasing liquidity
thru some back door mech ?

[arbman]

And finally a question for kisa; Does your comment above mean you think the FED is increasing liquidity thru some back door mech ?

The Fed maintains a large SOMA currently and explains it to fight economic shocks. The prime dealers and Fed are very well connected, so the prime brokers must be the ones intervening via the futures by borrowing directly from the Fed whenever they see a chance for a large failure, I don't know where the records of this borrowing activity is kept. Sometimes you can see them borrowing heavily ahead of the declines in the secondary lending operations, you would know those are temporary or simple discounting to a large fund or pension. The Fed also effects the commercial banking activity with their operations, every decline so far ended with a bounce in the commercial credit growth rate or more inflation. I don't know any more public information than these, so my knowledge is also limited; I can only look at what has been leading from the bottom and conclude that the market did not bottom naturally on this last decline. It was more obvious in the previous decline since the Fed openly did many coupon passes for weeks, but since the commodity speculation was shot so hard that the money actually went more into the value large caps. If a new IT rally emerges from here --I highly doubt it--, it will probably continue to go into the large caps value and resources...

- kisa

[Mr Dev]

Thanks for sharing your thoughts pn and jjc !

Until the NDX and RUT start to act more to my liking, I'm slightly diversifying into commodities, oil and maybe some gold.

Yesterday morning I exited shorts on the RUT and purchased some RYMBX at the close.

Today looks as expected. Note this is not my favorite fund because of the fees if traded within 30days
but with the pattern showing it should easily make up for cost if I decide to exit early.

[da_cheif]

Drop em all off at the wrong station then make a U-turn.



http://www.schaeffer...s/rydex_nu.aspx

.

http://www.thesounda...head/better.wav

just proves it again and again.....the majority are without a clew........