late last week i posted that i expected SPX to chop around at it's upper 2% trading envelope and........"by the middle of next week those envelopes (based on a 21 day simple mv.avg.) will turn back up, unless the market goes to hell real quick ( zero probability IMHO). by the end of next week, the market will be in the area for a crossing of the cycle projection line on the other chart. that may be the point when a resumption of the uptrend starts. it's also the area for a nominal 2.5 wk cycle low to bottom and turn up."..........
the updated chart...........
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p18576724128&r=9545.png
i still expect a nominal 2.5 wk cycle low to bottom shortly. recent samples have averaged slightly less than historical norms so that bottom may arrive as early as wed thru fri. no cycle downside projections have been generated yet for the 2.5 wk low.
the indu/nyse breadth system remains on it's intermediate buy signal.
cycles
Started by
airedale88
, Mar 27 2007 01:07 PM
17 replies to this topic
#1
airedale88
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Posted 27 March 2007 - 01:07 PM
airedale
Outspeaks the Squire, "Give room, I pray,
And hie the terriers in;
The warriors of the fight are they,
And every fight they win".
Ring-Ouzel, England
Outspeaks the Squire, "Give room, I pray,
And hie the terriers in;
The warriors of the fight are they,
And every fight they win".
Ring-Ouzel, England
#2
Russ
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Posted 27 March 2007 - 01:22 PM
I posted this yesterday, Eric Hadik is calling for a Apri 23-27 based on his cycle analysis. He is one of the best and apparently at odds with your work.
Free Forecast from http://www.insiidetrack.com/
March 22/23rd Peak?
03/20/07 Weekly Re-Lay: "Stock Indices still need to be considered in consolidation on a near-term basis...When the indices initially confirmed their Feb. 18th cycle high, the outlook was for a drop into March 5th followed by a rebound into March 22/23rd (see Feb. 28--March 3rd & March 14th Weekly Re-Lays and March 5th INSIIDE Track Update). If this occurred, it would set up a high-high-low Cycle Progression targeted for April 23--27th (Feb. 20/22nd high - March 22/23rd high - April 23--27th low).
...last week's (3/14/07) Alert identified the indices as being in consolidation...As a result, they were able to quickly drop to new correction lows AND enter a minor rebound between March 9th and March 23rd...Monday's action is increasing the possibility that the indices will move higher into March 22/23rd and then enter a new decline. This March 22/23rd--April 23--27th drop could be in multiple waves or one extended drop...For now, it is important to recognize, acknowledge and prepare for the possibility of a few more days of upside (watch weekly & intra-month resistance levels) before the next decline.
Free Forecast from http://www.insiidetrack.com/
March 22/23rd Peak?
03/20/07 Weekly Re-Lay: "Stock Indices still need to be considered in consolidation on a near-term basis...When the indices initially confirmed their Feb. 18th cycle high, the outlook was for a drop into March 5th followed by a rebound into March 22/23rd (see Feb. 28--March 3rd & March 14th Weekly Re-Lays and March 5th INSIIDE Track Update). If this occurred, it would set up a high-high-low Cycle Progression targeted for April 23--27th (Feb. 20/22nd high - March 22/23rd high - April 23--27th low).
...last week's (3/14/07) Alert identified the indices as being in consolidation...As a result, they were able to quickly drop to new correction lows AND enter a minor rebound between March 9th and March 23rd...Monday's action is increasing the possibility that the indices will move higher into March 22/23rd and then enter a new decline. This March 22/23rd--April 23--27th drop could be in multiple waves or one extended drop...For now, it is important to recognize, acknowledge and prepare for the possibility of a few more days of upside (watch weekly & intra-month resistance levels) before the next decline.
"Nulla tenaci invia est via" - Latin for "For the tenacious, no road is impossible".
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong
http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong
http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/
#3
GOOSE2
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Posted 27 March 2007 - 01:34 PM
So far the bears can't hold them under my 1436.
If they want to shake some folks out they will take them to 1427 ES
#4
airedale88
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Posted 27 March 2007 - 01:35 PM
i've looked at hadik's cycle work over the yrs. it's not Hurst's methods so it does not concern me. different opinions make markets.
airedale
Outspeaks the Squire, "Give room, I pray,
And hie the terriers in;
The warriors of the fight are they,
And every fight they win".
Ring-Ouzel, England
Outspeaks the Squire, "Give room, I pray,
And hie the terriers in;
The warriors of the fight are they,
And every fight they win".
Ring-Ouzel, England
#5
arbman
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Posted 27 March 2007 - 01:48 PM
Aire, I think today is the 2.5 wk cycle low, perhaps a bit lower in the morning tomorrow, but I don't see much later... ?
#6
denleo
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Posted 27 March 2007 - 02:14 PM
I don't see any more selling. I said that SPX will not see Monday's low again. This was a consolidation. Straight up tomorrow with Bernanke. This is easy money, it doesn't require a lot of thinking.
Denleo
#7
jjc
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Posted 27 March 2007 - 02:18 PM
This is easy money, it doesn't require a lot of thinking.
Sometimes the less the better.
#8
airedale88
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Posted 27 March 2007 - 02:33 PM
Aire, I think today is the 2.5 wk cycle low, perhaps a bit lower in the morning tomorrow, but I don't see much later... ?
kisa, cycle lows don't always show as the lowest low in any particular time frame. at times they occur at the breakout of a triangle or some other chart pattern. we've had some recent 2.5 wk samples running 10 to 11 weekdays. if i assign 3/14 as a 1/2 day up (it was a reversal day) that puts us 9 1/2 days along today so any b/o upmove starting tomorrow should indicate the 2.5 wk low is in.
airedale
Outspeaks the Squire, "Give room, I pray,
And hie the terriers in;
The warriors of the fight are they,
And every fight they win".
Ring-Ouzel, England
Outspeaks the Squire, "Give room, I pray,
And hie the terriers in;
The warriors of the fight are they,
And every fight they win".
Ring-Ouzel, England
#9
Russ
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Posted 27 March 2007 - 02:51 PM
It may not be Hurst's methods but he does have a strong track record and he knows alot about cycles. My bias is to the downside right now but I can always be wrong.
i've looked at hadik's cycle work over the yrs. it's not Hurst's methods so it does not concern me. different opinions make markets.
"Nulla tenaci invia est via" - Latin for "For the tenacious, no road is impossible".
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong
http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong
http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/
#10
Echo
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Posted 27 March 2007 - 10:13 PM
Aire,
Looking over the charts tonight, I don't see us breaking the 2.5 flds on any of the major indexes unless we plummet starting immediately. We could get there by Thursday, but that in the window for the 2.5 low anyway. Downside projections for the 6-7day fld are minimal and mostly met already. At best we might get an overshoot of those projections before the 2.5wk low.
Is that the way you see it?
Echo
