17 replies to this topic

[airedale88]

Aire,



Looking over the charts tonight, I don't see us breaking the 2.5 flds on any of the major indexes unless we plummet starting immediately. We could get there by Thursday, but that in the window for the 2.5 low anyway. Downside projections for the 6-7day fld are minimal and mostly met already. At best we might get an overshoot of those projections before the 2.5wk low.

Is that the way you see it?



Echo

we may get a nominal 2.5 wk downside projection tomorrow looking at the overnight es action, perhaps 1415+/- on the june future if there is a hit. at the same time, if we acknowledge the variation to the shorter length samples of recent cyclic action, the nominal 2.5 wk cycle could be due to bottom by late tomorrow. the chart below suggests where the recent 3/3.5 day sub harmonic cycle lows have been, and noon to late tomorrow fits well as the likely time window for the 4th and final 3/3.5 day cycle contained in the 2.5 wk.

[Echo]

Aire, Thanks for the chart and thoughts. I've been aware of the recent shorter length smaller cycles mainly with regard to the 20 wk low where the last 2.5wk cycle was about 10-10.5 TDs if we go by Feb 28 - March 14. My comment on that is that the shortened last 2.5 wk cycle may have been "forced" by the action of the duration of the 10wk and 20wk cycle lengths which were due on and around March 14. Other than the last 2.5 wk cycle, the rest have been following the more traditional lengths since the last 20wk low in Nov, don't you agree? Regardless, it is what it is and the next good buying op since March 14, (and I guess the morning of March 21!) is coming in the next 12-72 hours and I plan to be on board. Now, no more cycle straddles for a while, please . Echo

[airedale88]

echo, Hurst suggested using the last 3 samples of a cycle for current phase estimate. for the 2.5 wk cycle on SPX it's 1/21 to 2/12, 2/12 to 2/27, 2/27 to 3/14. on a low print to print count, each ran 11 days. on a closing basis chart, it's 10 days, 11 days, and 10 days. averaging print low and close low we get 10.5, 11, and 10.5 days. late today into thursday perhaps.

[airedale88]

as the bottom is forming for the nominal 2.5 wk low INDU has tagged it's now rising 21 day sma. this should be a general area of support.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p22135382622&r=5959.png

[airedale88]

we're now in the time window for the nominal 2.5 wk cycle bottom . SPX cash index cycle price projections suggest the 1415 area +/- . i think my estimate for the june es was a little too low. will start to buy back the 1/2 of my es's holdings i sold last week, scaling in now thru tomorrow.

[airedale88]

bought a few back in at 1428.50. will wait for close to see what happens before adding more.

updated SPX cash chart from above.........

[Echo]

echo, Hurst suggested using the last 3 samples of a cycle for current phase estimate. for the 2.5 wk cycle on SPX it's 1/21 to 2/12, 2/12 to 2/27, 2/27 to 3/14. on a low print to print count, each ran 11 days. on a closing basis chart, it's 10 days, 11 days, and 10 days. averaging print low and close low we get 10.5, 11, and 10.5 days. late today into thursday perhaps.

1/21 above should be 1/26, right?

You are right about the last 3 cycles lengths. The one before those 3 ran 12-14 days depending on where you marked the 10wk low in early Jan (8-10). It might be a bit unusual to have 4 cycles in a row of 11 days, but it's happened before. Even 10 day long 2.5wk cycles especially in bullish times.

Covered my short "blunder" from last Wed for a profit, lol. Now getting long into Thurs and Friday.

We now stand at 10.5 days.

BTW, how did you get a 2.5wk downside projection to 1415 on spx cash? Were you using the 3/3.5 FS/HS projected crossover for the 4th pulse in the 2.5wk? That seemed to target 1421 or so. Anyway, you were spot on as we hit 1414 on the cash.

Echo

[airedale88]

echo, thnx for catching the typo. yes, 1/26. when i jotted the dates down, my 6 looked like a 1. 1415 was derived from mid channel pause plus some fld projections on 1/2 hr chart using fld offsets for the variation adjusted 3/3.5 and 6/7 day cycles.