11 replies to this topic

[Trend-Signals]

you can watch the beautiful sky there without worrying about what is happening on the ground.

Hi xD,

Very nice picture, Thanks, refreshing to see pics like this. It is a good thing that we come across something like this.

It seems like market wants to see volatility. Oil is trading up $5 at $68 breaking above 68.

Do you think that Dr Bernanke and market will be afraid of the war, i.e. market will sell off hard?

Not like the rally which we saw in Mar 2003 but now we are in late economic cycle; hence, we would not see fresh rally.

Good luck with trading





~~~

I am hearing bad news about Iran firing missile even though it is reported that there is no such incident.

Futures are tanking, - 8.5/-4.25





http://www.jpost.com.....icle/ShowFull


Mar. 28, 2007 0:10
US Navy denies that Iran fired at US warship
By ASSOCIATED PRESS

The US military denied reports Tuesday that Iran fired a missile at a US ship in the Persian Gulf.

The rumors of an attack had sent oil prices soaring, but Lt. Cmdr. Charlie Brown of the U.S. Navy 5th fleet told an Associated Press reporter that all ships in the Gulf had been checked and the rumors were untrue.


http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$WTIC&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&i=p58487701200&a=80157012&r=112.png





AAPL traded to R2, 96.83, then reversed and closed with falling hammer. For those who entered at the breakout from the symmetrical triangle when I alerted on Mar 12 would have good run now; therefore, would have taken profit today.

MOT is trading at an important support and if breaks, watch out below.

QCOM is showing slowing momentum after a false breakout at the recent top, it is now showing double top formation for a ST pull back if it does not bounce up at the current level. Note the negative divergence on daily chart suggesting a pull back is likely trading below the 20ma support even though it traded higher today, it is still trading below intraday resistance at 42.85.


http://www.stockchar...63437&r=688.png


http://www.stockchar...409767&r=28.png

http://www.stockchar...27255&r=529.png

Edited by Trend-Signals, 27 March 2007 - 07:18 PM.

[A-ha]

I will make it very simple: Iran situation is a short term event, I dont think it will dominate the tape over the IT and LT. Crude is going down with the market. The news that came late in the day is actually bearish for crude as the action will assure the transportation of the black gold. We are entering a recession, that is the dominant force. Everything else is garniture SPX 1317 will likely be tested by mid June Costa Rica is a beautiful place for those who like to watch the sky.

Edited by xD&Cox, 27 March 2007 - 07:18 PM.

[Trend-Signals]

The situation could be a ST event. Nevertheless, it could be ST event or LT like what we have experienced with IRAQ - meant to be a quick one, but it turned out to be, NOT. I didn't read the board for months, so I am not sure your market sentiment was bullish or bearish; but, I was bullish since the "double" bottom scenario up until the finishing formation of "W" which I speculated. Up on till now, I was anticipating to fill the run away gap, and test the Feb 07 top, but now I am shaky and afraid. Market closed at resistance when it rallied on the FED news, then market consolidated during the last four trading days, including today. But now, with the IRAN news and the Bernanke speech tomorrow, it is like easy to be alive these days; but GLAD to get away to costa rica, CANCUN, Bahama ma ma..... I like Cancun and Bahama paradise island as well... The sky is clear and blue like your picture and the water fall.... you could just jump right in. By the way, who is in the picture which you posted in Costa rica? Thanks for your comment

Edited by Trend-Signals, 27 March 2007 - 07:32 PM.

[A-ha]

Fed rally was needed. It reset the sentiment, decimated the short interest and caused some panic buying that put the last nail in the coffin.

Meanwhile, writing was on the wall, with bold letters

http://xtrends.blogs...ic-pattern.html

[Trend-Signals]

Fed rally was needed. It reset the sentiment, decimated the short interest and caused some panic buying that put the last nail in the coffin.

Meanwhile, writing was on the wall, with bold letters

http://xtrends.blogs...ic-pattern.html

Oh, I am sorry. You must be bearish for a while? I know that you were bearish a couple of months ago when I was bearish. I am not sure whether you changed your mind since then. Some bears were upset lately because I turned to long side; but, I did what I saw the market was telling me at the breakout retest level which I figured market was forming "Breakout Retest" scenario with "W" formation.

However, as you also noted, market has formed perfect "W"s to resistances, for example, as shown on the Qs chart.

But now, we have "IRAN" issue, but things are complicated. As for, "Recession Coming", I would agree that we will see recession if Dr BB does not manage well at this point with housing bubble burst.

Well, we see how market will pan out tomorrow, but certainly looks like it could be a scary day.


re: OIL

OH, btw, why do you think that the Iran rumor is bearish for OIL? It could be bearish because it will degress Oil consumption and sell-in-the-news since everyone was expecting a war with Iran, my guess.


I didn't update my charts yet.



Best of luck with your trading



http://www.stockchar...09398&r=598.png

http://www.stockchar...77535&r=859.png

http://www.stockchar...40300&r=617.png

Edited by Trend-Signals, 27 March 2007 - 07:52 PM.

[A-ha]

Yes I been bearish for sometime now, you can see it from my signature...

That "W" bottom was advertised on CNBC even before we made the second low. It is likely a bear flag that happened to expand that way due to gigantic volume and volatility expansion, hence completed its mission by whipsawing the both sides.

Good luck with your trades.

[Trend-Signals]

Yes I been bearish for sometime now, you can see it from my signature...

That "W" bottom was advertised on CNBC even before we made the second low. It is likely a bear flag that happened to expand that way due to gigantic volume and volatility expansion, hence completed its mission by whipsawing the both sides.

Good luck with your trades.

Oh, I see your signature that you are saying you are in short position. I am sorry and I am not sure how long you were and since when, but I know now.

About the "W" bottom:

Yes, they might have been since I didn't hear it and I put CNBC mute for the most of the time.

I saw it was coming because I was looking for a reversal the day before. When Qs made "Tweezer" bottom, I knew that it would likely be "Double Bottom" scenario.

I am not sure about your trading style, but I guess that you would have hated me for calling the reversal. So, now, let me understand your position, if I may. Are you saying that we definitely have LT top in your view? I said that we do not have LT top based on my market analysis.

As for ST top, I still think that we have a chance to fill the gap, but we would likely see better within the next couple of days.

Right now, Markets are at resistance before the 4-day consolidation. In my comments, I said that I will draw final line to intra breakout level as cut-off to turn bearish. e.g. for Qs 43 +/- and SPX 1410 which were the intraday breakout point at intra high on 3/9/07.

I hope that you don't hate me for having different market view?

I can deal with different view anytime as long as we are not hating each other or being offensive with pestering arguments. I would not do that to you and I can be bearish now...

Best of luck with your trading.




http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=2&dy=15&i=p73797548221&a=79285156&r=517.png

http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&i=p22648394504&a=76929034&r=579.png

Edited by Trend-Signals, 27 March 2007 - 08:15 PM.

[Trend-Signals]

Hi xD, To understand your post better in the future, What are these dates and SPX numbers on your signature mean? -------------------- Futures short positions: SP March: Dec 18,06 btw 1442-1443 Jan 31,07 btw 1444-1446 Feb 1,07 btw 1450-1451 Thanks

Edited by Trend-Signals, 27 March 2007 - 08:39 PM.

[A-ha]

they are S&P big contract . dates are the trade dates. prices are the prices I shorted.

[Trend-Signals]

OK, thanks Now, I am wondering, if I may. What is your usual trading timeframe? It seems like that is ST-IT trading? I am sorry that I am asking you questions, but I started to notice things after you told me to read your signature, I saw the numbers and was wondering what thoes mean. Now, I am wondering whether that has a time line for trading? Can you trade as often as you can? Well, if you choose "not to answer to my questions" of course I understand.