"Breakout Retest" Formation - "ECB" 2/27/07
#1
Posted 29 March 2007 - 10:40 AM
I am noticing that Russ and Tor also mentioned on this site.
On Russ's comment, I am particularly interested in RUSS chart which dated in 2005 on ECB model which I haven't noticed before. My question is, "have you discussed the topic at that time?"
RUSS post Feb 19 2007, 09:40 PM
Regarding ECB model, I briefly commented on the ECB model during the mid 2006 as a part of reversal call with chart of 80yr LT TL support as well as the 8yr global model cycle.
I see that TOR mentioned 2/21/07 date for coming sell-off. And as I noted below, someone pointed my attention to a website who was posting that date, i.e. 2/27/07 ECB which I didn't notice.
Of course, with many market participant, some would have the same view and look at the same thing forming the same or similar opinions on the market.
If you could, please, update me with your prior discussion, I would appreciate your thoughts and comments.
ON THE LONG TERM TOP SUBJECT:
Certainly the recent development with Iran, Dr Bernanke comment, and subprime problem certainly does not help the "BREAKOUT RETEST' case for filling the runaway gap and for making new highs at this time. Having said that, it is my opinion that we have the LT top, i.e. no strong belief that we have the LT top. Of course, we can be sure at the end of 2007. We can also know if market falls apart before that by damaging Technical readings. Until proven otherwise, I am still looking at filling the gap, at least; and new highs is likely during this year.
Thanks for your comments.
http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?...68313&st=10
Mar 27 2007, 10:09 PM
Then, if I understood you correctly, you believe that we have seen the market TOP for IT/LT?
If so, do you believe that all big brokerage firm projections are wrong? The projection for 2007 is in average SPX 1550 +/-.
I also projected retesting the SPX 1550 when I posted Jun-Jul 2006 bottom wil 80yr LT trendline support as a part of reversal call. Therefore, I still think that SPX 1550 is very possible and likely.
Having said that, if we see a nuke bomb on a major city, then all hell breaks loose of course.
On a side note, now I understand that a few projected the Global Business Model Top formation which I briefly posted during the mid year last year. According to the GBC/Armstrong Model, 2/27/07 was the top date, when I also called the Top for a pull back. Someone else pointed my attention to a website who was focusing on that date. Since I posted the GBC model during the last year, I didn't closely pay attention until after the 2/27 market pull back.
Now, I think of the event of 2/27/07, it was co-incidental that the date is coincide with Greenspan speech; but, then one would wonder whether it is really co-incidental. This is not an important issue.
What's important is that to think that date, 2/27/07, is THE TOP date to start LT bear market?
In my opinion, no I don't think so. Unfortunately, until proven otherwise, the characteristic of this market is too questionable to say that that day was the start of a bear market.
This is based on my market analysis considering all factors until proven otherwise.
#2
Posted 29 March 2007 - 10:54 AM
Certainly the recent development with Iran, Dr Bernanke comment, and subprime problem certainly does not help the "BREAKOUT RETEST' case for filling the runaway gap and for making new highs at this time. Having said that, it is my opinion that we DON'T the LT top, i.e. no strong belief that we have the LT top. Of course, we can be sure at the end of 2007. We can also know if market falls apart before that by damaging Technical readings. Until proven otherwise, I am still looking at filling the gap, at least; and new highs is likely during this year.
I am sorry I made mis-statement on LT top. I meant to say that we do not have LT top, no confirmation.
Thanks for your comments, Russ & Tor. I just noticed the 2/27/07 top calls which I also called on that day as well as the forth coming sell off based on various market analysis. I briefly commented on the subject a few days ago.
I am noticing that Russ and Tor also mentioned on this site.
On Russ's comment, I am particularly interested in RUSS chart which dated in 2005 on ECB model which I haven't noticed before. My question is, "have you discussed the topic at that time?"
RUSS post Feb 19 2007, 09:40 PM
Regarding ECB model, I briefly commented on the ECB model during the mid 2006 as a part of reversal call with chart of 80yr LT TL support as well as the 8yr global model cycle.
I see that TOR mentioned 2/21/07 date for coming sell-off. And as I noted below, someone pointed my attention to a website who was posting that date, i.e. 2/27/07 ECB which I didn't notice.
Of course, with many market participant, some would have the same view and look at the same thing forming the same or similar opinions on the market.
If you could, please, update me with your prior discussion, I would appreciate your thoughts and comments.
ON THE LONG TERM TOP SUBJECT:
Certainly the recent development with Iran, Dr Bernanke comment, and subprime problem certainly does not help the "BREAKOUT RETEST' case for filling the runaway gap and for making new highs at this time. Having said that, it is my opinion that we DON'T the LT top, i.e. no strong belief that we have the LT top. Of course, we can be sure at the end of 2007. We can also know if market falls apart before that by damaging Technical readings. Until proven otherwise, I am still looking at filling the gap, at least; and new highs is likely during this year.
Thanks for your comments.
http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?...68313&st=10
Mar 27 2007, 10:09 PM
Then, if I understood you correctly, you believe that we have seen the market TOP for IT/LT?
If so, do you believe that all big brokerage firm projections are wrong? The projection for 2007 is in average SPX 1550 +/-.
I also projected retesting the SPX 1550 when I posted Jun-Jul 2006 bottom wil 80yr LT trendline support as a part of reversal call. Therefore, I still think that SPX 1550 is very possible and likely.
Having said that, if we see a nuke bomb on a major city, then all hell breaks loose of course.
On a side note, now I understand that a few projected the Global Business Model Top formation which I briefly posted during the mid year last year. According to the GBC/Armstrong Model, 2/27/07 was the top date, when I also called the Top for a pull back. Someone else pointed my attention to a website who was focusing on that date. Since I posted the GBC model during the last year, I didn't closely pay attention until after the 2/27 market pull back.
Now, I think of the event of 2/27/07, it was co-incidental that the date is coincide with Greenspan speech; but, then one would wonder whether it is really co-incidental. This is not an important issue.
What's important is that to think that date, 2/27/07, is THE TOP date to start LT bear market?
In my opinion, no I don't think so. Unfortunately, until proven otherwise, the characteristic of this market is too questionable to say that that day was the start of a bear market.
This is based on my market analysis considering all factors until proven otherwise.
#3
Posted 29 March 2007 - 11:19 AM
Will be interesting to see CLOSE...
Breakint 43.30 +/- is a bad news........ Bears win.
GOOD LUCK TO ALL
#4
Posted 29 March 2007 - 12:28 PM
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong
http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/
#5
Posted 29 March 2007 - 12:45 PM
I am not sure which post you are referring to. I assume you are referring to Martin Armstrong's Economic Confidence Model (ECM)
I have lot of info on my weblog...follow Armstrong link at bottom.
Russ
Hi Russ,
Thanks for reply and I am familiar with the Armstrong's website and view.
I am referring to the topic shown on the link below:
http://www.traders-t...?...c=66528&hl=
I am particularly interested in the chart dated 9/2/2005 which I see.
2nd page on the topic above
The chart you posted on post Feb 19 2007, 09:40 PM
The chart which you posted is dated 9/2/2005.
My question is whether you discussed the chart at that time.
Just curious.
Do you agree with the view that you see LT top as of 2/27/07?
btw, I knew "Russ" a few years ago who lives in middle state, maybe around TN.
Are you the same Russ? Are you familiar with paltalk? I came across him years ago.
Good luck with your trades
#6
Posted 29 March 2007 - 05:01 PM
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong
http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/
#7
Posted 29 March 2007 - 05:12 PM
Btw, is the website with signature yours?
http://www.traders-t...?...c=66528&hl=
I am not sure which post you are referring to. I assume you are referring to Martin Armstrong's Economic Confidence Model (ECM)
I have lot of info on my weblog...follow Armstrong link at bottom.
Russ
Hi Russ,
Thanks for reply and I am familiar with the Armstrong's website and view.
I am referring to the topic shown on the link below:
http://www.traders-t...?...c=66528&hl=
I am particularly interested in the chart dated 9/2/2005 which I see.
2nd page on the topic above
The chart you posted on post Feb 19 2007, 09:40 PM
The chart which you posted is dated 9/2/2005.
My question is whether you discussed the chart at that time.
Just curious.
Do you agree with the view that you see LT top as of 2/27/07?
btw, I knew "Russ" a few years ago who lives in middle state, maybe around TN.
Are you the same Russ? Are you familiar with paltalk? I came across him years ago.
Good luck with your trades
#8
Posted 29 March 2007 - 05:35 PM
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong
http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/
#9
Posted 29 March 2007 - 06:01 PM
Edited by Trend-Signals, 29 March 2007 - 06:05 PM.
#10
Posted 29 March 2007 - 06:51 PM
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong
http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/