I am noticing that Russ and Tor also mentioned on this site.
On Russ's comment, I am particularly interested in RUSS chart which dated in 2005 on ECB model which I haven't noticed before. My question is, "have you discussed the topic at that time?"
RUSS post Feb 19 2007, 09:40 PM
Regarding ECB model, I briefly commented on the ECB model during the mid 2006 as a part of reversal call with chart of 80yr LT TL support as well as the 8yr global model cycle.
I see that TOR mentioned 2/21/07 date for coming sell-off. And as I noted below, someone pointed my attention to a website who was posting that date, i.e. 2/27/07 ECB which I didn't notice.
Of course, with many market participant, some would have the same view and look at the same thing forming the same or similar opinions on the market.
If you could, please, update me with your prior discussion, I would appreciate your thoughts and comments.
ON THE LONG TERM TOP SUBJECT:
Certainly the recent development with Iran, Dr Bernanke comment, and subprime problem certainly does not help the "BREAKOUT RETEST' case for filling the runaway gap and for making new highs at this time. Having said that, it is my opinion that we have the LT top, i.e. no strong belief that we have the LT top. Of course, we can be sure at the end of 2007. We can also know if market falls apart before that by damaging Technical readings. Until proven otherwise, I am still looking at filling the gap, at least; and new highs is likely during this year.
Thanks for your comments.
http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?...68313&st=10
Mar 27 2007, 10:09 PM
Then, if I understood you correctly, you believe that we have seen the market TOP for IT/LT?
If so, do you believe that all big brokerage firm projections are wrong? The projection for 2007 is in average SPX 1550 +/-.
I also projected retesting the SPX 1550 when I posted Jun-Jul 2006 bottom wil 80yr LT trendline support as a part of reversal call. Therefore, I still think that SPX 1550 is very possible and likely.
Having said that, if we see a nuke bomb on a major city, then all hell breaks loose of course.
On a side note, now I understand that a few projected the Global Business Model Top formation which I briefly posted during the mid year last year. According to the GBC/Armstrong Model, 2/27/07 was the top date, when I also called the Top for a pull back. Someone else pointed my attention to a website who was focusing on that date. Since I posted the GBC model during the last year, I didn't closely pay attention until after the 2/27 market pull back.
Now, I think of the event of 2/27/07, it was co-incidental that the date is coincide with Greenspan speech; but, then one would wonder whether it is really co-incidental. This is not an important issue.
What's important is that to think that date, 2/27/07, is THE TOP date to start LT bear market?
In my opinion, no I don't think so. Unfortunately, until proven otherwise, the characteristic of this market is too questionable to say that that day was the start of a bear market.
This is based on my market analysis considering all factors until proven otherwise.
Breakint 43.30 +/- is a bad news........ Bears win. 
