8 replies to this topic

[Trend-Signals]

The last five trading days and today market actions are exactly what I have anticipated as commented on March 21 rally after the Fed announcement -- a period of mild profit taking and consolidation days in low volume. Also noted on Qs support 43.30 +/- and SPX 1410 +/- as the reversal points at which we saw today that market has reversed going into close.

MARKET DIRECTION

Let's recap the recent market actions. Market sold off on 2/27/07, then formed "Double Bottom" with "W" formation. This is based on "Breakout Retest" scenario which I commented when i called the double bottom which the call is based on other market analysis, but the strongest technical factor for the reversal is "Breakout Retest" Scenario. The scenario suggests that we will see "Filling the run-away" gap, and possible "Making new highs". As I noted earlier, today was technically Pivotal Day for the market. The pivotal day when Bulls and Bears fought to gain their grounds and so far bulls won the battle as we see that market was supported at the aforementioned major support area.

We can say that the reversal was due to the EOM/EOQ market actions; but, also, the reversal was technically forecasted 5-trading days ago. We now have confirmed a reversal at the targets, i.e. Qs 43.30 +/- and SPX 1410 +/-, "Breakout Retest" scenario to fill the run-away gap and possibly making new high can be anticipated.


BREAKOUT RETEST

We now have two major views for future market actions as I commented on 3/11, "Breakout Retest" vs "ECM cycle top as of 2/27/07". http://www.traders-t...showtopic=68420

While I do respect the recent pull back from 2/27/07 as I also predicted the sell-off as well, but I do not believe that we have the LT top as of that day. This belief is consistent with my forecast to SPX 1550 +/- during Jun-Jul 2006 that we will see a retest of the Mar 2000 high. I am not saying that we do not have the LT top as of 2/27/07 because I forecasted that we will see SPX 1550 +/- during this year, but it is because, based on my TA analysis and market sentiment, we do not have the LT top. I stated the reasons for my belief that we will see new high toward SPX 1550 +/- which I will state again in the future, but for now, market has not negated the SPX 1550 +/- target. I know that we have problems with inflation, Iran issues, subprime market, etc.; but, considering all the factors, unless proven otherwise, we will see higher than SPX 1460.53 which is the intra high of 2/20/07. Of course, if market sends me different signal, I will change my mind.


INTRADAY MARKET ACTIONS

As commented during premarket, the morning gap is faded trading to lower. I also noted that intraday pivot was 43.68 and when it broke the pivot, it traded to targeted Qs 43.30. Even though Qs were breaking noted Qs 43.30, market was oversold. As I noted that it is building a base, we saw market was trading higher into close. The link below is real time calls. http://www.traders-t...showtopic=68412


As noted earlier before the reversal at 2:30 PM into closing, intraday is oversold; thus, I am anticipating further price advancement.


Good luck to ALL


x




http://www.stockchar...09398&r=598.png

http://www.stockchar...77535&r=859.png

http://www.stockchar...40300&r=617.png

http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=2&dy=15&i=p73797548221&a=79285156&r=517.png

http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&i=p22648394504&a=76929034&r=579.png

http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=4&mn=8&dy=0&i=p49229126946&a=78987374&r=825.png

http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&i=p31631774778&a=76966992&r=329.png

http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=W&yr=4&mn=0&dy=0&i=p63151936612&a=76929550&r=145.png

http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&i=p21609042622&a=76909044&r=764.png

http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$COMPQ&p=W&yr=4&mn=3&dy=0&i=p53935525265&a=77295648&r=218.png

Edited by Trend-Signals, 29 March 2007 - 08:36 PM.

[Trend-Signals]

OIL/USO certainly performed very well. OIL breaking above the resistance & USO heading to 55.

TRAN is trading at lower TL support

http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$WTIC&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&i=p58487701200&a=80157012&r=112.png

http://www.stockchar...87382&r=489.png


http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$TRAN&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=p81785759841&a=65761744&r=415.png

AAPL closed at breakout support.

http://www.stockchar...27255&r=529.png

[bobalou]

nice post.,but aapl could be at brake down support

[Trend-Signals]

Hi Bo, Yes, it could break down as well as it has during the last peak forming double top formation. Premarket is flat going into eco number this morning. Good luck

Edited by Trend-Signals, 30 March 2007 - 07:27 AM.

[skott]

Observation. I am not a huge believer in indicators but signals from weekly indicators can be trusted more. If you look at the chart of QQQQ in this topic you will see that every time the weekly macd turned down and gave a sell signal it resulted in a multi month correction. Also the price moved to or near the bottom of the channel each time. we are no where near a multi month correction yet nor are we near the bottom of the channel. We had an uncorrected 8 month advance. I doubt it will correct with just 4 weeks time.

[skott]

something that I think is a mistake on the annotated chart is the "climactic volume" on the chart. I don't believe you can have climactic selling volume at the start of a downmove. The huge volume spike cam on what was really the first day of the selloff and it was a day with a large breakaway gap. To me this reinforces the bearishness of the action. Are you saying we had a capitulation selling day on the first day of the selloff?

[Trend-Signals]

something that I think is a mistake on the annotated chart is the "climactic volume" on the chart. I don't believe you can have climactic selling volume at the start of a downmove. The huge volume spike cam on what was really the first day of the selloff and it was a day with a large breakaway gap. To me this reinforces the bearishness of the action. Are you saying we had a capitulation selling day on the first day of the selloff?

The sell off was anticipated by many traders and, Yes, the climactic selling is confirmed for ST as we have seen the recent reversal of the ST.

I have commented on the Climactic volume selling analysis during the Jun-Jul 2006 bottom call and now I am seeing the similar actions based on my observations which I noted during the last couple of weeks.

You are new, at least from my point, who I have not come across before, but I think that many understood my analysis as I presented since Jun-Jul 2006 bottom when we saw the climactic sell-off bottoming process.

I understand your point of view, regardless about the correction period and price; having said that, as I noted before, the case for "RETEST OF BREAKOUT" SCENARIO is my basis.

The climactic sell-off for VST is already proven to be correct since the sell-off is already done as we have seen the recent reversal and is now showing "W" Formation.

For the LT price actions, we now need to wait for a confirmation during the next week which I am waiting for a confirmation as well.

[Trend-Signals]

Addendum to ALL in general:

It is easy to write a sentence to say what seems to be incorrect. I see 1000s of posts and comments by others which are proven to be incorrect; however, it is prudent to show one's analysis showing due-diligence than making on cheap remark. There are literally thousands of extensive studies which are proven to be correct and incorrect; nevertheless their studies added value to further insight. But just adding correct-incorrect comment does not enhance others' work or insight.

For those who have done worthwhile analysis and who are worthwhile to pay attention to would have prior track record and studies which we can refer to.

Therefore, the best approach is to present your studies which you can refer to, so that others can see the results with hindsight.

~~~

The sell off was anticipated by many traders and, Yes, the climactic selling is confirmed for ST as we have seen the recent reversal of the ST.

I have commented on the Climactic volume selling analysis during the Jun-Jul 2006 bottom call and now I am seeing the similar actions based on my observations which I noted during the last couple of weeks.

You are new, at least from my point, who I have not come across before, but I think that many understood my analysis as I presented since Jun-Jul 2006 bottom when we saw the climactic sell-off bottoming process.

I understand your point of view, regardless about the correction period and price; having said that, as I noted before, the case for "RETEST OF BREAKOUT" SCENARIO is my basis.

The climactic sell-off for VST is already proven to be correct since the sell-off is already done as we have seen the recent reversal and is now showing "W" Formation.

For the LT price actions, we now need to wait for a confirmation during the next week which I am waiting for a confirmation as well.

Edited by Trend-Signals, 01 April 2007 - 10:54 AM.

[skott]

mr or ms trend signals first of all I'm not so new. If you look, I have over 1500 posts you have 300+...... doesn't make a difference anyway. Secondly, I was expressing an opinion and I said "I think" there is a mistake. Third, look at the W bottom in Feb and the subsequent action. It looks very similar to the current action. Perhaps a fractal. In any case I stand by what I said and I provided my "analysis" as well..... breakaway gap to the downside on huge volume that so far has held and repelled price action. There is no way to know what will happen from here I can only say what has happened.