8 replies to this topic

[airedale88]

Hurst cycle phasing for the broker dealer index XBD..

XBD shows high right translation in the major cycles as it nears the important nominal 4.5 yr cycle low due late july. high right translated tops imply that the trend larger in time than the length of the cycle examined is up. high right translation this late in the 4.5 yr cycle implies a very strong trend. the only indication of possible weakness in XBD is that this last 20 wk cycle low in march did drop, if only for a short time, below the previous 20 wk low of early nov. XBD is approx 2 weeks along on the new 20 wk cycle. the quality of the rally off the march 20 wk cycle low should give important clues to what form the decline into the 4.5 yr low should take. higher cycle projections should be available by early next week, unless a large decline occurs now.

[mmm]

Thanks airdale for the updates. Dennis

[eminimee]

XBD may want a lower low...really has to get back inside the wedge for me to think otherwise...I've still got a target of 207/10

fwiw.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$XBD&p=W&yr=5&mn=6&dy=0&i=p15108778277&a=99114659&r=2016.png

[Russ]

How about a good ol' cycle inversion?

[airedale88]

tea, normally at a point this close to a nominal 4.5 yr and 80 wk cycle low a Hurst analyst must respect the fact that a decline into that low could start at any moment. it is only the overall trend, as exemplified by the right translated cyclic action, that suggests a tradeable rally here. maybe i should mention that more, it's not a good time to fall asleep at the wheel . if no rally develops out of this 2.5 wk low by early next week. i'm out. russ, there are no cycle inversions in Hurst analysis.

[Russ]

I know that other cycles can invert, I don't understand why Hurst's would be different but given your strong view there is likely something to what you are saying. Not sure if you saw my charts post yesterday on the xbd, talking with another trader we came to the conclusion that 160 is the most probable on this breach of the long support line. Russ

[Russ]

Here is HiFiGuy's chart as well.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$XBD&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&i=p52625419052&a=102238350&r=3733.png

[Echo]

tea, normally at a point this close to a nominal 4.5 yr and 80 wk cycle low a Hurst analyst must respect the fact that a decline into that low could start at any moment. it is only the overall trend, as exemplified by the right translated cyclic action, that suggests a tradeable rally here. maybe i should mention that more, it's not a good time to fall asleep at the wheel . if no rally develops out of this 2.5 wk low by early next week. i'm out.

Aire,

You raise a good point. Another indication that a tradeable rally should occur here is that the NY AD line just made a new high this week and we just got McClellan Breadth thrusts after the lows. I will be looking at the AD line for further clues as to the severity of the 4.5yr low coming this summer. If it continues to confirm higher highs, then we may get a smaller correction this summer. If we get divergent highs soon, then perhaps a more protracted drop could be in the cards.

Regarding the 2.5wk low, I think getting a 12 or 13 TD cycle here would not be unreasonable. If the morning dip on Friday was it, than that would have been 12 days. Weakness early Monday should be a buying op though I think a drop below the Friday lows would get us all worried.

Echo

[chris3403]

When applied to GE’s daily chart the SAR is a very reliable T/A indicator. Friday the SAR issued a 100% Sell Signal. At a minimum the only thing that will reverse this signal will be for GE to get above and stay above 35.80 further complicating this issue is the massive amount of shares (12,582,000) that were sold at the close on 3/27/07 through the pre open on 3/28/07 @35.79 Therefore based on that indicator rather then going up to challenge the recent high at 36.00 the assumption would be for GE sideways to slightly downward movement as we approach the time frame for the upcoming 5wk low. GE will report earnings before the bell on 4/13/07 that will be the 20th TD from the 3/14/07 low. chris