cycles
#1
Posted 30 March 2007 - 05:58 AM
XBD shows high right translation in the major cycles as it nears the important nominal 4.5 yr cycle low due late july. high right translated tops imply that the trend larger in time than the length of the cycle examined is up. high right translation this late in the 4.5 yr cycle implies a very strong trend. the only indication of possible weakness in XBD is that this last 20 wk cycle low in march did drop, if only for a short time, below the previous 20 wk low of early nov. XBD is approx 2 weeks along on the new 20 wk cycle. the quality of the rally off the march 20 wk cycle low should give important clues to what form the decline into the 4.5 yr low should take. higher cycle projections should be available by early next week, unless a large decline occurs now.
Outspeaks the Squire, "Give room, I pray,
And hie the terriers in;
The warriors of the fight are they,
And every fight they win".
Ring-Ouzel, England
#2
Posted 30 March 2007 - 07:39 AM
#3
Posted 30 March 2007 - 08:29 AM
fwiw.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$XBD&p=W&yr=5&mn=6&dy=0&i=p15108778277&a=99114659&r=2016.png
#4
Posted 30 March 2007 - 11:11 AM
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong
http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/
#5
Posted 30 March 2007 - 11:57 AM
Outspeaks the Squire, "Give room, I pray,
And hie the terriers in;
The warriors of the fight are they,
And every fight they win".
Ring-Ouzel, England
#6
Posted 30 March 2007 - 12:40 PM
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong
http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/
#7
Posted 30 March 2007 - 12:57 PM
Here is HiFiGuy's chart as well.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$XBD&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&i=p52625419052&a=102238350&r=3733.png
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong
http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/
#8
Posted 31 March 2007 - 10:13 PM
tea, normally at a point this close to a nominal 4.5 yr and 80 wk cycle low a Hurst analyst must respect the fact that a decline into that low could start at any moment. it is only the overall trend, as exemplified by the right translated cyclic action, that suggests a tradeable rally here. maybe i should mention that more, it's not a good time to fall asleep at the wheel . if no rally develops out of this 2.5 wk low by early next week. i'm out.
Aire,
You raise a good point. Another indication that a tradeable rally should occur here is that the NY AD line just made a new high this week and we just got McClellan Breadth thrusts after the lows. I will be looking at the AD line for further clues as to the severity of the 4.5yr low coming this summer. If it continues to confirm higher highs, then we may get a smaller correction this summer. If we get divergent highs soon, then perhaps a more protracted drop could be in the cards.
Regarding the 2.5wk low, I think getting a 12 or 13 TD cycle here would not be unreasonable. If the morning dip on Friday was it, than that would have been 12 days. Weakness early Monday should be a buying op though I think a drop below the Friday lows would get us all worried.
Echo
#9
Posted 01 April 2007 - 12:09 PM