Posted 30 March 2007 - 01:17 PM
This is at the recognition wave, this is not a wave-C, this is the third wave down. The wave 1-2 are forming for the early April, then it will go down for the rest of April until early May rapidly.
The 1st wave was very deep on the Feb 27th decline, it means the wave-4 will be flat --the bounce from 10 wk cycle low. The breath is the reason there was a snapback, the divergence here doesn't mean anything since the leadership is totally wrong. The wave-5 will be the 20 wk cycle low around the middle of summer...
If I had to throw targets, I would say 1200 is a good one for the final low, 1300 or so for May. If 1300s are broken by May, it is a bear market. If 1200s are broken, it is probably a severe recession...
Yes, I just called a 18% decline for 2007. How else, the Fed can lower the rates? How else the dollar can gain some traction? How else the housing bubble could be saved? How else the lending standards can be relaxed again?
- kisa