7 replies to this topic

[Cirrus]

Hostages released and crisis avoided. Why is oil down only 50 cents? Could it perhaps be because oil is 64+ because of fundamental world wide supply and demand relationships? OK...plenty of cynicism in this post but couldn't help it.

[arbman]

fate of oil soon...

[Cirrus]

kiscik, Your chart is the reason why I think the stocks have a long ways to go--to the upside. That chart deals with ONLY US data. The problem is energy is now so much a world economic situation and so little a US one. The US economy isn't growing near as fast as BRIC which encompasses about 12 times our population. They are experiencing trememdous increases in petro demand while there is virtually no excess supply. Your chart and institutionally mentality is the very reason commodity stocks are soooo cheap right now. Unless the world is about to experience a recession or a dramatic slowing in economic growth it's off to the races. Of course, there will be corrections along the way.

[arbman]

(1) If WTIC goes over $69.5 over the next 6-12 months --that's about 3 bucks, it means the inflation --excess liquidity that is-- and the oil demand is much stronger than I estimated. I will accept I am wrong.

(2) My estimates --that I posted here last June-- say that the oil will bottom in the first quarter of 2008 and I expect a severe sell off until the middle of summer from whatever highs will be made over the next 1 wk.

(3) I see the gap from Feb 27th was an inflection point in the growth potential for the stocks over the next 6 months and it will not be closed during this rally. I expect a violent sell off on Monday that should snapback one more time until the middle of April for a lower high and a downtrend until May...

(4) I expect the market to bottom in summer for a 12% correction at least. I am carrying very little risk here since this gap play will be very quickly resolved.

- kisa

Edited by kisacik, 04 April 2007 - 02:55 PM.

[Cirrus]

kisacik, I don't know what will happen for sure. By the way, in my response: "Your chart and institutionally mentality is the very reason commodity stocks are soooo cheap right now" I didn't mean your institutional mentality but rather institutional mentality in general. I have the highest respect for your opinions and posts and my mistyped post really came off arrogant--I appologize as that wasn't my intention. I don't know where oil goes this summer but I don't think it sells off severely. Either way I would be very surprised if crude didn't test $100 per barrel within 18 months. I'm not wildly crazy like Matt Simmons as I think $100 crude will finally begin to more dramatically impact the supply/demand situation. I am of the opinion that commodities are in a secular bull market vs world currencies. I also believe it will be the biggest bull market in many commodities since the world began. It may be an overly dramatic opinion but I think it will happen over the next 15 years.

[arbman]

Oh no! not at all, don't worry about it, I am totally thinking too much like an institution than a trader. Although you didn't want to imply, it is actually true...



Many people thought that the low volatility range would go on for the first half this year like 2006 too. Anyway, as I said, I will see how and if the gaps get closed...

Good luck,
- kisa

[arbman]

I just wanted add this message here since I absolutely believe that the market is right about to begin a much deeper second leg down. But, the gap closing or not closing is not as critical at this juncture for the probability of a correction --I said this before, however it could be important for the depth of the correction. I am gradually getting short here, I will not be fully short even if the market breaks down on Monday...

[arbman]

It looks like one more thrust is quite possible later next week, I think Monday will be down only...

Edited by kisacik, 05 April 2007 - 03:00 AM.