7 replies to this topic

[CLK]

[CLK]

[Russ]

I don't understand why you have multiplied Armstrong's cycle by 5 and 4. He multiplied it by 6 to get 51.6 years which comes to an end in 2037 (low) after the peak in 2032.

[CLK]

I don't understand why you have multiplied Armstrong's cycle by 5 and 4. He multiplied it by 6 to get 51.6 years which comes to an end in 2037 (low) after the peak in 2032.

I wasn't aware of the 51.6 year cycle, which *2 takes us back to 1929 from 2032.
Mainly I'm trying to highlight that the bear markets of 29 and 73 were in time with an 8.6 cycle.
That, in conjunction with the TL breaks and retest from the 32 low
and 82 low.

We could be in another 15 year sideways market with the 2002 lows
to be tested again, maybe multiple times.

The bull market from 1982-2000, was roughly 18 years.
So if the bear/sideways market ends in 2015 then add another 18 years
of bull market takes us to 2033 approx. lining up with Armstrong's
51.6 year top.

[CLK]

Just looking back 100 years from now, 1907 started a 25% bear with 8 years of sideways to follow, to end in 1915.

[Russ]

[colion]

FWIW (Armstrong major/minor cycles) - "... when she was good she was very, very good and when she was bad she was horrid."

[Russ]

The cycle does not just apply to the main US indexes. It showed the high in the nikkei in late 1989, the low in the british pound in 1985 and the low in gold in 1999 for example. It is an international model that shows where capital flows are concentrating.

There is a professor at a US college that has tweaked it and found other variations of it as well I have read.


[quote name='colion' date='Apr 6 2007, 10:38 PM' post='281292']
FWIW (Armstrong major/minor cycles) - "... when she was good she was very, very good and when she was bad she was horrid."