17 replies to this topic

[Russ]

Thanks Cirrus.
Things are looking a little to optimistic now though, the pointer on the site is at the excessive optimism level.

I use the OEX P/C at Sentimentrader.com. Jason also tracks (and I closely follow) the OEX P/C MAs, OI and an OEX P/C to Equity P/C ratio. All are incredible market tells.

FWIW they are all in the clear for now and are actually mildly bullish IMO. Typically there are several days warning. If anyone here is trading enough money where they can afford $200 for an entire year (best value for market analysis tools bar NONE). This is from someone who has tried plenty of things through the years and cancelled most. I consider Sentimentrader indispensable and at $200 a month I feel I'm ripping Jason off. I hope he doesn't read this post--LOL--as O don't want rates to go up.

[skott]

I would think he is showing GS because it is now diverging from what the market is doing

[arbman]

The banks are generally underperforming at this point, are you guys surprised? No rate cuts, more defaults, stiffer lending standards, less profits. It is actually funny that the Fed complains about the inflation now right after they pumped as if the world is coming to an end last year...

[skott]

not funny. It's just the standard today.........LIE, LIE, LIE till they die!

[Cirrus]

Actually, I think the financials are the biggest problem for the markets and agree kisacik. If stocks like C and JPM (along with the brokers) can't put together a rally then we could have some problems soon. C and JPM are now coiled up pretty tight. I remember the 99 to 2000 market when you had to be in the leading groups to make money (internet, semis and basically tech). Most other stocks did poorly. For me the leaders are the energy and basic materials sectors. If these sectors are doing well things should be OK. Precious metals look OK here, too. Another sign that there's enough liquidity out there to sustain the market. I think things are OK for a couple weeks at least.

[arbman]

The leader, by no exception, is the utilities at the moment. The electric utilities, the gas utilities and, Cirrus, of course the suppliers benefit such as the energy stocks, drillers etc. When these break, everything else will break for a typical deflation after this inflation wave. For now, the excess liquidity is flowing in these by a large margin, then it goes into the inflation indicator metals. Some excess liquidity is also speculating in the tech at the moment, but they will all get punished with the rest, imho...

[Cirrus]

Agree the utilities are doing very well. I'm watching small and mid cap industrial metal stocks double and triple over a few month period--on top of previous runs. Uranium stocks are going nuts--still. Even the big cap metals stocks like FCX, RIO, BHP and a few others are at ATHs and the charts look FANTASTIC. They look like the weekly charts are breaking out of long bases on great volume ready for another run. I won't even mention the ultra low PEs and high double digit growth rates. What about energy? Anyone check out the weekly and monthly charts? I have and the majority of LT charts look like they're breaking out of bull flags (monthly) and ready for another really nice run.

[arbman]

Cirrus, as much as I agree with you, if the rest of the economy does not follow like it didn't in March 2005 to increase the real growth, the Fed will continue to be restrictive about the liquidity --has to-- whatever the housing does. Currently, these issues that are attracting the most capital are only making the environment better for a sustained growth since the competetion might keep the energy prices more stable. Either the energy costs must come down or the rest of the economy must become more efficient to turn bigger profits. I see more and more signs of a tech bottoming, perhaps one more intermediate term wave lower and then that's it. The big borkers must have some sort of a target price band that as soon as they see the energy prices stabilizing in that band, they will start to bid up the rest of the stock market. This snapback in the stocks after the utilities' leadership stalled is notable, but I have not seen them leading the big rallies, so the rally might be about to be over and the energy is still leading... - kisa