Aire I'll probably get a tongue lashing but what the hell been there done that so I have to ask the questions.
GS didn't start trading until May 99, 6 months after the 98 low. How can it be in phase with any 18 year Commonality phasing model?
2nd question ref a prior post on GE
we know for sure 11/02 was a 5 wk low.
if we look at the next higher cycle (10 wk)
fld we see that GE crossed below and then
back above that fld which is good evidence
that 11/02 was also a 10 wk cycle low. this use
of flds to identify past time cycle lows is one
of the main tools in the Hurst course to complete
a FPA (formal phasing analysis). another part of
the FPA process is applying the Hurst cycle
principles. in this case the principle of harmonics
suggests that if 11/02 was a 10 wk nest of lows
than the 5 wk cycle that bottoms at the same time
could not be just the third 5 wk cycle low off GE's last
20 wk low (there would NOT be a 10 wk cycle
low associated with a third 5 wk harmonic)
and must be the final 5 wk low of the 20 wk cycle
aire in the above explanation you showed a chart with a 10wk fld on it using 1,24 however using 1,28 while the cross was there it barely cleared the fld before selling off into the Dec low.
As you should recall I stated I had a problem as to which was the 20wk low for GE, Nov or Dec?
Why wouldn't it have been more appropriate at that time to have used a 20wk fld in attempting to locate the 20wk cycle low for GE?
GE reports earnings before the bell this coming Fri. At the present time based on available information it appears GE will challenge the 3/14/07 5wk low.
20wk low in for GE or not?
Hell I'm still confused on it.
thanks for any help
chris
chris, if you take the available data on GS and line it up on the chart shown you'll see that since the onset of trading it tracks the same cyclic path as MER, GSC ,and the commonality phasing model for the broad indices. that's the advantage a commonality model provides, aid in difficult phasings (including limited price data).
chris, one of the difficulties in posting Hurst based charts with their flds is the interpretation may look easy at times but there are multiple factors involved which really do require a good foundation in Hurst's analysis methods. one factor in fld interpretation that must be accounted for is the right or left time translation of the cycle under examination which causes translation of the fld. when using flds for locating cycle troughs one should look not only at the fld associated with the cycle in question but all smaller cycle flds.
here's a weekly chart of GE. it has two closing price flds for the nominal 10 wk and 20 wk cycles.
the 1st blue circle indicates an area where a 20w cycle nest of lows possibly bottomed. the 1st arrow points to a june low, the 2nd points to the july low. my work suggests that the june low was the 20w low and the july low was a reaction to news. a minor point, it won't make much difference as you'll see. confirmation that a 20w low did bottom inside that blue circle is confirmed by GE crossing above both 10w and 20w flds (red and green). the next smaller blue circle marks where a 10w low should be. again we have a choice of lows depending on how we count from the two earlier possible 20w lows. no fld crossing occurs to help define that 10w low. we'll leave that alone for now too. the next blue circle suggests a window for the next 20w and 10w nest of lows GE dropping below the 10w red fld and then crossing above it suggests the 1st arrowed bar within that circle is a 10 wk low. it therefore has to be part of the 20w nest of lows due in that time window. prices do retreat after the upside cross of the 10w fld, but do not close below the red fld again. GE also just barely tags the green 20w fld without a clear close below it. the 10w red fld, due to trend translation at a low which shifts the 20w fld too far to the right, provided the down and upside crosses needed to label the 1st arrow as a 10w low and the principle of harmonics makes it a 20w low as well. this labeling of cycle lows is a much closer match to index cycle troughs and the commonality model. the march 07 low, 19 wks from the last 20w low, follows true to form with indices and commonality also. GE has made it's 20w low. since GE topped quite earlier than the broad market, it is acting weaker on the bounce off that low.
all IMHO
G/L, G/T
