13 replies to this topic

[airedale88]

the monthly chart below of MER shows a Hurst phasing analysis for the major 4.5 yr, 18 month and 9 month cycles. this phasing was based on MER price data only but not surprisingly it is the same phasing arrived at for INDU, SP500, and NYSE COMP and it is also matches the commonality phasing model.
the markets are approx 16 to 17 wks from the time window for the nominal 4.5 yr cycle nest of lows.
the cyclic trend larger than the 4.5 yr cycle remains strong up. cyclic price projections on the averages listed above indicate at a minimum tests of the highs but most likely new highs. MER's nominal 10 wk cycle projection indicates 90 +/- 2.5 pts, below it's previous high. if brokerage stocks are "coal mine canaries" that may be a hint of future weakness into the 4.5 yr bottom. at this time there are NO cyclic indications that the markets have topped. IMO it's prudent to keep in mind that we are nearing an important cycle bottom and while i am long i keep an eye out for the exit, just in case. it may be a minor event, the 4.5 yr cycle low of sept 1986 was over in the blink of an eye, but if any unforeseen fundamental event pops up it could get interesting. we just saw such events increase cycle amplitude at a 20 wk cycle low in march 07 and in june 06.
depending on the cyclic structure over the next 5-7 weeks, there could be a nice intermediate short trade setting up.



*note.. both BSC and GS have the same cycle phasing as MER. you could overlay their charts on the cycle bars below to see the match.

*not all cycle lows create a visually obvious price low. sometimes all we see is an acceleration of a trend already in force. the nominal 18 month nest of lows of mid january 06 was one such event. not all obvious visual price lows are important cycle lows. fundamental events can cause what Hurst called cycle straddles. also note that these three "canaries" charts do not suggest that the low of oct 05 was a phase shifted 40 wk cycle low, as many respected analysts suggest. that's a minor point in the overall scheme, but important for those applying Hurst's methods of cycle analysis

Edited by airedale88, 07 April 2007 - 04:55 AM.

[mortiz]

Aire, As always, excellent work, I always look forward to your Hurst updates. I have been particularly interested in the apparent disagreement between Hurst theory 4.5 year cycle lows and the 4 year cycle work many analysts employ (4 year low already in), including some very respected names who have brought up the October 2005 40-week cycle phase shift theory. I know Hurst does not allow for phase shifts and I assume agrees with the notion that cycle lows can be points where price accelerates upward from, and not necessarily points where price declines into. You likely have better things to do with your time, but if/when time allows, would you mind providing the approximate time frames when Hurst 4.5 year cycle lows have unfolded of the past few cycles? I am interested in comparing the internals action leading up to the price highs prior to the cycle lows being established, and would like to use our local Hurst expert's time frames for those lows as the reference points. Keep up the good work and thanks for sharing it. Randy N.

[airedale88]

Aire,

As always, excellent work, I always look forward to your Hurst updates. I have been particularly interested in the apparent disagreement between Hurst theory 4.5 year cycle lows and the 4 year cycle work many analysts employ (4 year low already in), including some very respected names who have brought up the October 2005 40-week cycle phase shift theory. I know Hurst does not allow for phase shifts and I assume agrees with the notion that cycle lows can be points where price accelerates upward from, and not necessarily points where price declines into.

You likely have better things to do with your time, but if/when time allows, would you mind providing the approximate time frames when Hurst 4.5 year cycle lows have unfolded of the past few cycles? I am interested in comparing the internals action leading up to the price highs prior to the cycle lows being established, and would like to use our local Hurst expert's time frames for those lows as the reference points.

Keep up the good work and thanks for sharing it.

Randy N.

Randy, gotta get out and run the dog before snows hits the philadelphia area. some Easter! off the top of my head, here's the last few.....sept 86...oct 90...jun 94...oct 98....mar 03.

the jun 94 low not that apparent visually with lows on either side on a monthly chart. it was a period similar to the jan / feb 06 80 wk cycle low period (aside from being a larger 9y and 4.5y cycle low) when many stocks/sectors were slightly out of phase with each other as they made their own respective cycle bottoms. a commonality model indicated june 94.

Edited by airedale88, 07 April 2007 - 06:39 AM.

[mortiz]

Aire, Thanks for the 4.5 year cycle low data points, assuming the elapsed time in between lows is consistent going back further in time, I can derive the rest. Snow coming? ..... some April, eh? Here in Iowa we haven't been hit with any snow the past couple weeks, but plenty of days of below zero wind chills. Must really be nasty for our friends further north..... Happy Easter! Randy

[mss]

Aire,
Must really be nasty for our friends further north.....
Happy Easter!
Randy

How about you friends in the deep south, EVERYTHING in bloom. Snow flurrys last night, melted, 22* this morning and predicted 16* tomorrow morning here on Signal Mtn.
O' well HAPPY EASTER to all and to all.....................stay warm.
mss

[Cirrus]

the monthly chart below of MER shows a Hurst phasing analysis for the major 4.5 yr, 18 month and 9 month cycles. this phasing was based on MER price data only but not surprisingly it is the same phasing arrived at for INDU, SP500, and NYSE COMP and it is also matches the commonality phasing model.
the markets are approx 16 to 17 wks from the time window for the nominal 4.5 yr cycle nest of lows.
the cyclic trend larger than the 4.5 yr cycle remains strong up. cyclic price projections on the averages listed above indicate at a minimum tests of the highs but most likely new highs. MER's nominal 10 wk cycle projection indicates 90 +/- 2.5 pts, below it's previous high. if brokerage stocks are "coal mine canaries" that may be a hint of future weakness into the 4.5 yr bottom. at this time there are NO cyclic indications that the markets have topped. IMO it's prudent to keep in mind that we are nearing an important cycle bottom and while i am long i keep an eye out for the exit, just in case. it may be a minor event, the 4.5 yr cycle low of sept 1986 was over in the blink of an eye, but if any unforeseen fundamental event pops up it could get interesting. we just saw such events increase cycle amplitude at a 20 wk cycle low in march 07 and in june 06.
depending on the cyclic structure over the next 5-7 weeks, there could be a nice intermediate short trade setting up.



*note.. both BSC and GS have the same cycle phasing as MER. you could overlay their charts on the cycle bars below to see the match.

*not all cycle lows create a visually obvious price low. sometimes all we see is an acceleration of a trend already in force. the nominal 18 month nest of lows of mid january 06 was one such event. not all obvious visual price lows are important cycle lows. fundamental events can cause what Hurst called cycle straddles. also note that these three "canaries" charts do not suggest that the low of oct 05 was a phase shifted 40 wk cycle low, as many respected analysts suggest. that's a minor point in the overall scheme, but important for those applying Hurst's methods of cycle analysis

Outstanding post Airedale. I don't know the future but IMO this is a plausible scenario. I did a 'loose study' a year ago about July. Almost every year of the past 10+ there seems to be a very tradeable IT CIT around July OPEX +/- a couple of weeks. I've thought for a while that we will have a '98 style correction--short (coule of months) and sharp (10-20%) before the '08 election pump-up. It's simply the best way to crush commodities--short term starvation of liquidity. It could pave the way for a couple of cuts. 98 was also interesting as we got a breakout to new highs (SPX) and a 4 week runup into July OPEX. Then the floor dropped out with a nasty 20+% correction in 3 months. If I recall the financials got clobbered.

If I were guessing I would say we get a brisk move solidly to new highs and then big trouble. However, I try not to get too caught up in expecting the market to do something in the future as it impacts sound judgement. Cycles are great when you begin to get confirmation of scenarios by basic TA--price/volume/basic market and group internals.

[airedale88]

i have to laugh. just received a private message telling me that i am "acting like a dog following good market commentators foot steps copying their work." everybody does Hurst cycle work! woof woof.

[Rogerdodger]

Airedale, You're the top dog in my book!

[relax]

woof woof

who writes private messages ;-)

i have to laugh. just received a private message telling me that i am

"acting like a dog following good market commentators foot steps copying their work."

everybody does Hurst cycle work!

woof woof.

[chris3403]

Aire I’ll probably get a tongue lashing but what the hell been there done that so I have to ask the questions. GS didn’t start trading until May 99, 6 months after the 98 low. How can it be in phase with any 18 year Commonality phasing model? 2nd question ref a prior post on GE we know for sure 11/02 was a 5 wk low. if we look at the next higher cycle (10 wk) fld we see that GE crossed below and then back above that fld which is good evidence that 11/02 was also a 10 wk cycle low. this use of flds to identify past time cycle lows is one of the main tools in the Hurst course to complete a FPA (formal phasing analysis). another part of the FPA process is applying the Hurst cycle principles. in this case the principle of harmonics suggests that if 11/02 was a 10 wk nest of lows than the 5 wk cycle that bottoms at the same time could not be just the third 5 wk cycle low off GE's last 20 wk low (there would NOT be a 10 wk cycle low associated with a third 5 wk harmonic) and must be the final 5 wk low of the 20 wk cycle aire in the above explanation you showed a chart with a 10wk fld on it using 1,24 however using 1,28 while the cross was there it barely cleared the fld before selling off into the Dec low. As you should recall I stated I had a problem as to which was the 20wk low for GE, Nov or Dec? Why wouldn’t it have been more appropriate at that time to have used a 20wk fld in attempting to locate the 20wk cycle low for GE? GE reports earnings before the bell this coming Fri. At the present time based on available information it appears GE will challenge the 3/14/07 5wk low. 20wk low in for GE or not? Hell I’m still confused on it. thanks for any help chris