29 replies to this topic

[TTHQ Staff]

Fearful Forecast... The most hair pulling scenario I can come up with, so gotta be right, right? Peak ~882

[jmicou]

Would you consider the commercials the "dumb money"?

[OEXCHAOS]

I would venture a guess that Staff doesn't consider the commercials at all. I've personally had no luck using them as a sentiment measure...it's too hard to know what they are really up to. Like are they doing something to offset an etf play? The futures and etf's are much more liquid than the actual stocks in the RUT. BUT, if you've got a read on them, let me know. Mark

[jmicou]

Interesting you brought up the ETFs. On a SPX COT at TW, which is in a bullish configuration, jerkstore posted the following: "The COT data for Russell 2000 Mini contract is also showing an extreme Commercial long position and extreme Lg Spec short position, with Small Specs also net short. When you view this in conjunction with 110% of IWM shares being held short, it appears that the herd (ie. the new "smart money") is "all-in" short on small caps..."

[jmicou]

Here are a few SPX COT charts:

[OEXCHAOS]

Well, it doesn't look Bearish. When do these report again? This big short position is odd. Very odd. It may not mean what it appears to mean. Mark BTW, when we were making the summer low, there was MUCH more Bearishness than we had at the recent low. Yet the non-Commercials, whoever they really are, were far less short back then. Mark

[jmicou]

Well, it doesn't look Bearish.

When do these report again?

This big short position is odd. Very odd. It may not mean what it appears to mean.

Mark

BTW, when we were making the summer low, there was MUCH more Bearishness than we had at the recent low. Yet the non-Commercials, whoever they really are, were far less short back then.

Mark

[jmicou]

Although I don't keep COT charts of the Nikkei (instead, use SentimenTrader), it appears to be in a bullish configuration.

[Russ]

Not sure where you got your charts from but this one shows commercials still short, although the trend is for them to be less short than in feb/mar but new trend is increasing to the downside.

[Echo]

FYI, RUT generated an upward 10wk Hurst cycle projection to 845 +/- 8.5 points that should be met (if it is going to be met) before the May expiration 5/18, most likely by late April or early May. Echo