14 replies to this topic

[The End]

For da record, I am not looking for a crash either. Just offered up some stats, based on what might be a very right hand translated four year cycle top.

[thespookyone]

Lots of IF's, End. I think we go with what is and play it from there. If things change then we can too.

Right NOW, I'm not seeing any sign that the big money is heading for higher ground and lightening up on anything. Breadth is STRONG.

Now, if the MIDX and RUT start really underperforming, I have to sit up and take notice.

This from one who WAS there in 1987.

Mark

Mark=I see what you are saying about big money not "heading for higher ground", and yes, breadth is obviously strong. My question is-if "big money" is gung ho to participate in this market, why are we headed up on absolute helium? Where is the volume? The volume looks a lot more like mom and pop buying to me-than the tracks that would be left by "big money".

Edited by thespookyone, 08 April 2007 - 07:51 PM.

[OEXCHAOS]

"Mom and Pop" aren't Bullish yet. So, it's going up on tentative buying by pros, which means that they need to put more money to work.

Mark

A crash is not very likely. Interest rates would have to increase by about 2 percent before I would even begin to worry.

Rich

I don't know if we need that much, but a steady creep up in interest rates and a steady thinning out of the market (as it rises) into summer would put the '87 analog back in play--sans Crash. For now, well, it's just a thought.

But we're all agreed: No Crash likely at this point.

Mark

[thespookyone]

"Mom and Pop" aren't Bullish yet. So, it's going up on tentative buying by pros, which means that they need to put more money to work.

Mark

A crash is not very likely. Interest rates would have to increase by about 2 percent before I would even begin to worry.

Rich

I don't know if we need that much, but a steady creep up in interest rates and a steady thinning out of the market (as it rises) into summer would put the '87 analog back in play--sans Crash. For now, well, it's just a thought.

But we're all agreed: No Crash likely at this point.

Mark

Is what you are saying,then, that mom and pop aren't buying, but are selling to pro's that are doing tenative buying-as the market rises day after day? Trading since the early 70's, I have rarely seen that. My question was why AREN'Tpro's buying, which I don't feel is answered by "they need to put more money to work". Why haven't they? Mom and dad sure seem "bullish" to me, willing to ignore subprime issues, the dollar getting smacked, and any other bad news on a day to day basis.. Maybe the lack of volume signals the pro's are taking these issues a bit more seriously. To me, this looks like nothing more than a low volume backtest,back to the gap. of the worst day breadth day ever

[OEXCHAOS]

"Mom and Pop" aren't Bullish yet. So, it's going up on tentative buying by pros, which means that they need to put more money to work.

Mark

Is what you are saying,then, that mom and pop aren't buying, but are selling to pro's that are doing tenative buying-as the market rises day after day? Trading since the early 70's, I have rarely seen that. My question was why AREN'Tpro's buying, which I don't feel is answered by "they need to put more money to work". Why haven't they? Mom and dad sure seem "bullish" to me, willing to ignore subprime issues, the dollar getting smacked, and any other bad news on a day to day basis.. Maybe the lack of volume signals the pro's are taking these issues a bit more seriously. To me, this looks like nothing more than a low volume backtest,back to the gap. of the worst day breadth day ever

What are you looking at that tells you that "Mom and Pop" are bullish? AAII doesn't show anything Bullish.

"Mom and Pop" are definitely worried about real estate. You can see it everywhere, like in recent sales--or lack of such. The big boys are beginning to NOT be so worried, it would seem. As to why the big boys do anything, I have no idea, really. It's just guessing.

But if you're fading "Mom and Pop", you'd better be looking long. That's all I'm saying.

OTOH, if you're fading small hedge funds, you can probably begin to look short. Maybe. Marginally. Sort-of.

Mark