16 replies to this topic

[Russ]

russ, prechter was also the head of the foundation for a while so maybe marty should not list that on any resume.

question for you. as time permits, been reading your blog on armstrong. i saw a quote from him that his model called the low in 1987. did it call the top too? can you point to any info on that? thanks.

I'm sure that most organizations have had good and not so good leaders from time to time. According to Ross Clark (a very good market technician) over at Institutional Advisor's, nobody could keep up with Marty. Ross followed him around for 6 months in the 1980's.

'87 crash bottom happened right on the pi cycle. Marty apparently did forecast the market had peaked at a public seminar before the crash. According to theory it was the first crash in the new confidence in public markets 51.6 yr. cycle that started in 1985 during Reagan and Thatcher's reign.

Russ

[airedale88]

russ, prechter was also the head of the foundation for a while so maybe marty should not list that on any resume.

question for you. as time permits, been reading your blog on armstrong. i saw a quote from him that his model called the low in 1987. did it call the top too? can you point to any info on that? thanks.

I'm sure that most organizations have had good and not so good leaders from time to time. According to Ross Clark (a very good market technician) over at Institutional Advisor's, nobody could keep up with Marty. Ross followed him around for 6 months in the 1980's.

'87 crash bottom happened right on the pi cycle. Marty apparently did forecast the market had peaked at a public seminar before the crash. According to theory it was the first crash in the new confidence in public markets 51.6 yr. cycle that started in 1985 during Reagan and Thatcher's reign.

Russ

russ, i hope you know that was a joke about the foundation, prechter, etc.



two more armstrong questions. it seems that on these various cycle dates of his economic cycle, events would occur in different economies and not always show a correlation to others. was armstrong usually able to indicate what and where something would manifest itself as one of these dates occurred? the second question, in a review armstrong wrote that is on your blog, he said "The cycle at this point appeared to hold up very nicely, being off no more than 1 year at any point." did he usually allow for a +/- period of time surrounding each of these important turn dates?
thnx russ.

[Russ]

russ, i hope you know that was a joke about the foundation, prechter, etc.
two more armstrong questions. it seems that on these various cycle dates of his economic cycle, events would occur in different economies and not always show a correlation to others. was armstrong usually able to indicate what and where something would manifest itself as one of these dates occurred? the second question, in a review armstrong wrote that is on your blog, he said "The cycle at this point appeared to hold up very nicely, being off no more than 1 year at any point." did he usually allow for a +/- period of time surrounding each of these important turn dates?
thnx russ.

Actually I thought you were serious, hard to tell sometimes whether a person is joking or not. Don Wolanchuk for example has written Armstrong off as a plagiarist of Benner and a un-original criminal, even though 8.6 and 9 are obviously two different numbers. So a belated on your joke!

Armstrong predicted that the Nikkei would peak on his cycle and that it would be down 20,000 points within 10 months, after that the Japanese started to pay attention to the man and ultimately hand over 3-4 billion dollars to Marty. What has to be remembered is that his cycle was only part of his super-computer model that had 32,000 variables and took $60 million of programming according to him. His computer forecast 6,000 on the dow in the early 1990's by 1996 and then 10,000 on the dow by 1998.

The computer model tracked international capital flows and since most of the time capital flows to the USA given that it is the largest economy in the world most of the time the model would be applied to the USA. After the G5 meeting in the mid 1980's they moved the dollar down and capital concentrated in Japan leading to the 1989 peak.

I also noticed that Marty said his cycle was within a year backtesting to the 1930's, he seemed to use that time period for that period of backtesting. Since the 1980's I think he stated within a few days or weeks was the normal perimeter allowed. I am unclear on that point. He stated that panics increase 100% during a 51.6 year private cycle like the one we are in now. It's possible that the cycle dates accuracy goes up in a private cycle, I have not backtested it going back centuries as he did (I don't have the data or time to do it). He had data going back to the Babylonian Empire!

Russ

[airedale88]

russ, i hope you know that was a joke about the foundation, prechter, etc.
two more armstrong questions. it seems that on these various cycle dates of his economic cycle, events would occur in different economies and not always show a correlation to others. was armstrong usually able to indicate what and where something would manifest itself as one of these dates occurred? the second question, in a review armstrong wrote that is on your blog, he said "The cycle at this point appeared to hold up very nicely, being off no more than 1 year at any point." did he usually allow for a +/- period of time surrounding each of these important turn dates?
thnx russ.

Actually I thought you were serious, hard to tell sometimes whether a person is joking or not. Don Wolanchuk for example has written Armstrong off as a plagiarist of Benner and a un-original criminal, even though 8.6 and 9 are obviously two different numbers. So a belated on your joke!

Armstrong predicted that the Nikkei would peak on his cycle and that it would be down 20,000 points within 10 months, after that the Japanese started to pay attention to the man and ultimately hand over 3-4 billion dollars to Marty. What has to be remembered is that his cycle was only part of his super-computer model that had 32,000 variables and took $60 million of programming according to him. His computer forecast 6,000 on the dow in the early 1990's by 1996 and then 10,000 on the dow by 1998.

The computer model tracked international capital flows and since most of the time capital flows to the USA given that it is the largest economy in the world most of the time the model would be applied to the USA. After the G5 meeting in the mid 1980's they moved the dollar down and capital concentrated in Japan leading to the 1989 peak.

I also noticed that Marty said his cycle was within a year backtesting to the 1930's, he seemed to use that time period for that period of backtesting. Since the 1980's I think he stated within a few days or weeks was the normal perimeter allowed. I am unclear on that point. He stated that panics increase 100% during a 51.6 year private cycle like the one we are in now. It's possible that the cycle dates accuracy goes up in a private cycle, I have not backtested it going back centuries as he did (I don't have the data or time to do it). He had data going back to the Babylonian Empire!

Russ

thnx russ. so was this last cycle date of feb 27 indicated to be a longer term top for the US stock markets or a panic day? i'm not clear on the implications. i'll guess a top but that's based on your posts which incorporate armstrong for a bearish slant? reading armstrongs review he points out events that lined up with cycle dates that were tops or bottoms but it seems further along in time there is no opposite top or bottom call cycle date for the same market or economy. am i reading this wrong?

[Russ]

thnx russ. so was this last cycle date of feb 27 indicated to be a longer term top for the US stock markets or a panic day? i'm not clear on the implications. i'll guess a top but that's based on your posts which incorporate armstrong for a bearish slant? reading armstrongs review he points out events that lined up with cycle dates that were tops or bottoms but it seems further along in time there is no opposite top or bottom call cycle date for the same market or economy. am i reading this wrong?

The last thing Marty wrote was in 1999, back then he said commodities would rise up into the next major cycle date of 2007, as we know commodities peaked in mid 2006 and then the stock market took the lead. He also said that the stock market would go sideways for 5 or 6 years after it peaked in the late 1990's and given that it is just starting to make new highs that is about correct. If he had not been in prison for the last 7+yrs. I think we would have gotten slightly modified interpretation out of him by now! Normally a major 8.6 panic cycle should lead to a 10-20% decline, if this one doesn't it will be making history from what Ross Clark said.

The cycle does not show all tops and bottoms but it did a pretty good job of showing the main turns in the 1990's (1994.25 the spx low to the day, july 98 - market peaked internally and later in Sept.2000 final top for the SPX and the final low in the late 2002 time). It is a tricky cycle to interpret even Marty did not always interpret it exactly, that does not mean the model is no good it just shows it is difficult to see sometimes.

Russ

Edited by Russ, 10 April 2007 - 11:51 AM.

[airedale88]

Russ, thnx for bearing with me and answering my questions. doing some reverse engineering along with the cyclic principles Hurst discovered i believe i know what armstrong's cyclic model portrays.

[Russ]

Sounds interesting, please let me know what you find.

Martin Armstrong just got a 5 yr. jail sentence for his securites case today, it will not start until his civil contempt case (for which he has been in prison for 7+yrs. is cleared up). They never proved that those assets they demanded were aquired before the trouble at Princeton Economics in 1999. I don't think he has been treated fairly. Looks like he is going to be a pretty old man before he gets out. Another cycle genius sits in prison, after Kondratiev.

Russ, thnx for bearing with me and answering my questions. doing some reverse engineering along with the cyclic principles Hurst discovered i believe i know what armstrong's cyclic model portrays.