Edited by QID_trader, 10 April 2007 - 06:02 PM.
Bought Crash Puts
#1
Posted 10 April 2007 - 06:00 PM
#2
Posted 10 April 2007 - 06:09 PM
Mark S Young
Wall Street Sentiment
Get a free trial here:
http://wallstreetsen...t.com/trial.htm
You can now follow me on twitter
#3
Posted 10 April 2007 - 06:15 PM
#4
Posted 10 April 2007 - 06:17 PM
#5
Posted 10 April 2007 - 06:20 PM
#6
Posted 10 April 2007 - 06:22 PM
#7
Posted 10 April 2007 - 06:30 PM
I can't see why you would think that this is the time to swing for the fences.
I know Hank does some interesting work, but it's market fractals, and sometimes they invert. Trust me on this. My old Timing Point Projector could nail turns and even closes to with pennies from time to time, but then, BANG an inversion would show up. Folks would do just what you're doing, too. That's why I quit offering that indicator to the public. Always with the options, never with futures. Always after a hot streak, always overweighting. Then I'd get the calls, apologizing for canceling but they were out of money. I'd always ask why and the answer was always options (and thus no stops), and improperly large positions.
Right now, you're fighting the trend. Breadth is quite positive. LowRisk shows 52% Bears. You're NOT likely to get more than a WWW down draft. Your enthusiasm for this aggressive short is enough to make me doubt that we even get enough of a decline to call a down draft. I'm not just saying this about you, either. Whenever ANYONE gets hot on ANY analysts work and starts thinking that they should be swinging for the fences, especially counter trend, well, that's a bad sign.
Signed,
Your Dutch Uncle
I felt just as strongly bearish on 2/26 as I do now, and that time I let it all ride on QID and made a huge score the very next day. Back then all the bulls were alking about new highs and how the market can never crash from new highs and look what happened. I feel like most everybody is bullish and complacent right now, nobody is looking for a crash except for the Hankster. I like my odds here. Anyways, if you don't take big risks you can't make the big money. My goal is to make a million by my 25th birthday which is just 2 years away. If this trade goes my way I'll be well on my way.
-Greg
#8
Posted 10 April 2007 - 06:31 PM
#9
Posted 10 April 2007 - 06:37 PM
Hey All,
I took the plunge today and bought a sizeable chunk of April 43 QQQQ Puts. Wish me luck!
I figured if the Hankster is right (and I am pretty confident that he is) then this is a once in a lifetime opportunity to strike it rich in a few days. I am expecting a 10 bagger at least. If so yours truly will be riding around in a new Beamer next week
Come on F8 Crash!
Can't say that I believe in plunging, especially not here, but-two things:
If I had to make a plunge here, I certainly would have plunged 44's at 20 cents, rather than the 43's at .08. It would have been a much safer play, and would still be a ten bagger at 42.00-where your 43's would be little more than a five bagger at the same spot-despite their much higher risk. Trading is all about risk vs. reward
Second, it's all about timing-my guess is you will have been able to make the same plunge bet at half price tomorrow-on any bump ups that happen, as that premium is getting tourched. If you feel the need to plunge, wait till you already see movement your way. The ridiculously low volume has me questioning this market runup, but "it is what it is-till it isn't" and right now-it still "is".
Good Luck
Spooky
#10
Posted 10 April 2007 - 07:22 PM
Hey All,
I took the plunge today and bought a sizeable chunk of April 43 QQQQ Puts. Wish me luck!
I figured if the Hankster is right (and I am pretty confident that he is) then this is a once in a lifetime opportunity to strike it rich in a few days. I am expecting a 10 bagger at least. If so yours truly will be riding around in a new Beamer next week
Come on F8 Crash!
I really like your style. I am also in SPY APR 145 puts,I wish I was 25yrs old, I would have entered a bigger position, but at my age my wife would slaughter me if I lost too much money. I am in puts just playing it simple based on extended runup in Dow Jones Index for 7-8 days up. Looking for a modest drop, nothing like Feb, but I'll take anything Good luck to us.