20 replies to this topic

[QID_trader]

Hey All, I took the plunge today and bought a sizeable chunk of April 43 QQQQ Puts. Wish me luck! I figured if the Hankster is right (and I am pretty confident that he is) then this is a once in a lifetime opportunity to strike it rich in a few days. I am expecting a 10 bagger at least. If so yours truly will be riding around in a new Beamer next week Come on F8 Crash!

Edited by QID_trader, 10 April 2007 - 06:02 PM.

[OEXCHAOS]

I can't see why you would think that this is the time to swing for the fences. I know Hank does some interesting work, but it's market fractals, and sometimes they invert. Trust me on this. My old Timing Point Projector could nail turns and even closes to with pennies from time to time, but then, BANG an inversion would show up. Folks would do just what you're doing, too. That's why I quit offering that indicator to the public. Always with the options, never with futures. Always after a hot streak, always overweighting. Then I'd get the calls, apologizing for canceling but they were out of money. I'd always ask why and the answer was always options (and thus no stops), and improperly large positions. Right now, you're fighting the trend. Breadth is quite positive. LowRisk shows 52% Bears. You're NOT likely to get more than a WWW down draft. Your enthusiasm for this aggressive short is enough to make me doubt that we even get enough of a decline to call a down draft. I'm not just saying this about you, either. Whenever ANYONE gets hot on ANY analysts work and starts thinking that they should be swinging for the fences, especially counter trend, well, that's a bad sign. Signed, Your Dutch Uncle

[J.Bilkins]

One week before 100% loss probably. Gambling in the worse way possibe.I doubt Hankster would play that move with a sizeable chunk. Anyone ever heard of a crash before earnings season? It is just getting started with AA and they had great numbers. Doesn't mean you will not be right but since you say you are learning....you have a 99% chance of being completely taken out of the game by gambling like that. 1st rule of trading. Never put yourself in a position to be taken out of the game. At least the May's would keep you in longer... Just an opinion with the best of intentions. I think most others would agree. Better luck playing penny stocks and buying small amounts of options that will just sting a little if you are wrong....been there lost that so know a bit about what I am talking about.....in 1999 I was king...in 2000 I got blown to kingdom come. Had no clue how options really worked or the dynamics involved.

[da_cheif]

http://www.traders-t...?...c=68680&hl=

[J.Bilkins]

Dutch Uncle. I think we could break out big time here if tall the resistance points on the QQQQ stocks (which many are close to) gets taken out. INTC for example seems it was held at 19 with all kinds of ammo....now it looks set for 22 or whatever with ease... QQQQ is the most manipulated large cap etf over watched index in the entire stock market. The beta alone makes it not worth trading options on unless you are writing covered calls.... imo.

[J.Bilkins]

We have been up 7 days in a row so no doubt we should have weakness here.....but still. Mega bets with options that expire in a week is one thing. Not getting taken out completely the next time is another...I have seen in 6 katrillion times over the years.

[QID_trader]

I can't see why you would think that this is the time to swing for the fences.

I know Hank does some interesting work, but it's market fractals, and sometimes they invert. Trust me on this. My old Timing Point Projector could nail turns and even closes to with pennies from time to time, but then, BANG an inversion would show up. Folks would do just what you're doing, too. That's why I quit offering that indicator to the public. Always with the options, never with futures. Always after a hot streak, always overweighting. Then I'd get the calls, apologizing for canceling but they were out of money. I'd always ask why and the answer was always options (and thus no stops), and improperly large positions.

Right now, you're fighting the trend. Breadth is quite positive. LowRisk shows 52% Bears. You're NOT likely to get more than a WWW down draft. Your enthusiasm for this aggressive short is enough to make me doubt that we even get enough of a decline to call a down draft. I'm not just saying this about you, either. Whenever ANYONE gets hot on ANY analysts work and starts thinking that they should be swinging for the fences, especially counter trend, well, that's a bad sign.

Signed,
Your Dutch Uncle

I felt just as strongly bearish on 2/26 as I do now, and that time I let it all ride on QID and made a huge score the very next day. Back then all the bulls were alking about new highs and how the market can never crash from new highs and look what happened. I feel like most everybody is bullish and complacent right now, nobody is looking for a crash except for the Hankster. I like my odds here. Anyways, if you don't take big risks you can't make the big money. My goal is to make a million by my 25th birthday which is just 2 years away. If this trade goes my way I'll be well on my way.

-Greg

[ed rader]

hey Mark -- i've got some silicon valley swamp land i'll sell you . ed rader

[thespookyone]

Hey All,

I took the plunge today and bought a sizeable chunk of April 43 QQQQ Puts. Wish me luck!

I figured if the Hankster is right (and I am pretty confident that he is) then this is a once in a lifetime opportunity to strike it rich in a few days. I am expecting a 10 bagger at least. If so yours truly will be riding around in a new Beamer next week

Come on F8 Crash!

Can't say that I believe in plunging, especially not here, but-two things:
If I had to make a plunge here, I certainly would have plunged 44's at 20 cents, rather than the 43's at .08. It would have been a much safer play, and would still be a ten bagger at 42.00-where your 43's would be little more than a five bagger at the same spot-despite their much higher risk. Trading is all about risk vs. reward
Second, it's all about timing-my guess is you will have been able to make the same plunge bet at half price tomorrow-on any bump ups that happen, as that premium is getting tourched. If you feel the need to plunge, wait till you already see movement your way. The ridiculously low volume has me questioning this market runup, but "it is what it is-till it isn't" and right now-it still "is".
Good Luck
Spooky

[caspary]

Hey All,

I took the plunge today and bought a sizeable chunk of April 43 QQQQ Puts. Wish me luck!

I figured if the Hankster is right (and I am pretty confident that he is) then this is a once in a lifetime opportunity to strike it rich in a few days. I am expecting a 10 bagger at least. If so yours truly will be riding around in a new Beamer next week

Come on F8 Crash!

I really like your style. I am also in SPY APR 145 puts,I wish I was 25yrs old, I would have entered a bigger position, but at my age my wife would slaughter me if I lost too much money. I am in puts just playing it simple based on extended runup in Dow Jones Index for 7-8 days up. Looking for a modest drop, nothing like Feb, but I'll take anything Good luck to us.