11 replies to this topic

[NAV]

May last another couple of hours tommorow morning As i commented in my blog last, the market looked tired as we approached 1448 and a reaction looked inevitable. My downside targets for the move was SPX 1428-30 (ES 1438-40). I will refine it to SPX 1430-32, which should be tagged tommorow morning. QIDs who overstay on the short side could be driving Kias instead of the BMWs ES 1440-42 is a key area, which should provide support. If this area is breached, then lower targets like ES 1428-30 will come into play. Need more clues in the form of price action tommorow to determine if that's the case. In any case, the next move of consequence should be a move to a new recovery highs on the SPX.

Edited by NAV, 11 April 2007 - 10:26 PM.

[thespookyone]

May last another couple of hours tommorow morning

As i commented in my blog last, the market looked tired as we approached 1448 and a reaction looked inevitable. My downside targets for the move was SPX 1428-30 (ES 1438-40). I will refine it to SPX 1430-32, which should be tagged tommorow morning. QIDs who overstay on the short side could be driving Kias instead of the BMWs

ES 1440-42 is a key area, which should provide support. If this area is breached, then lower targets like ES 1428-30 will come into play. Need more clues in the form of price action tommorow to determine if that's the case.

In any case, the next move of consequence should be a move to a new recovery highs on the SPX.

Sure, the market looked tired,but, it was really more than that,wasn't it? Certainly the gap fill, and test, on light volume came into play,along with the obvious resistance at 1450, that on first volley has held true. I did not short the SPX until the 1447 area, because I was waiting for at least a bit of confirmation to take up my position, which I increased a bit this morning. Just as I waited to enter my short, I'll need to see real proof that we are not headed lower,fast-before I exit it.. The volume on the downside move today was a stark contrast to the helium inspired upmove on VERY low volume that we saw. I suppose what surprises me the most is the certainty of your and others convictions-be it bull or bear. I rode the market up in Q calls, despite my "distaste" of the fashion of it's no volume rise. I shorted the Q's in the 44.50 area due to my e-wave count, combined with the positioning of the 3 and 8 day ema. I hardly feel there is any confirmation the correction is over-and am not trying to be bullish or bearish here, just trade "what is" for the money. That said, I am,"so far", very bullish mid to long term, but feel a correction is vital to the further health and movement of the market. Unlike many, I have no sure answer for what the market will do tomorrow, as there are too many factors involved. Does the PPT team catch the market-or step out of the way being one of the things I will watch most closely. Does bredth weaken? Do speed and volume pick up on the way down? Are moms and dads "spinable" on the now surety they face of no rate cuts? (And I doubt they are, as on every tiny crumb of a possible cut was served up to them, they pushed the market immeadiately higher-there will probably be at least a bit of inverse reaction here-more than thew 100 points or so we saw today.) If earnings come out weak on top of the other factors in play-do they add a huge thrust down? I'll just trade what tomorrow "is".

Spooky

Edited by thespookyone, 11 April 2007 - 11:16 PM.

[spoo tooth]

Hey,,,"spooky", thanks for horning my handle. Guess I'll have to ask Admin to scratch my registration, cause I sure don't want to get confused, with a sharp operator like you.

[greenie]

May last another couple of hours tommorow morning

As i commented in my blog last, the market looked tired as we approached 1448 and a reaction looked inevitable. My downside targets for the move was SPX 1428-30 (ES 1438-40). I will refine it to SPX 1430-32, which should be tagged tommorow morning. QIDs who overstay on the short side could be driving Kias instead of the BMWs

ES 1440-42 is a key area, which should provide support. If this area is breached, then lower targets like ES 1428-30 will come into play. Need more clues in the form of price action tommorow to determine if that's the case.

In any case, the next move of consequence should be a move to a new recovery highs on the SPX.

Gosh, my head spins, when I read your blog. Between "We are likely heading into recession" to higher and higher Dow, you have every possibility covered

Let's see, whether I understand this post correctly. You are saying that

( a ) "ES 1440-42 is likely to provide a support." Then you said that you do not know, whether it will until the market reaches there. So, it is not a high-confidence scenario.
(b ) Second possible support is 1428-30. You do not know, whether market will bounce from there until we reach there. So, it is not a high-confidence scenario.
( c ) "In any case, the next move of consequence should be a move to a new recovery highs on the SPX." - that means, you somehow know that either ( a ) or ( b ), which are not high-confidence scenarios, will definitely happen.


Isn't that conflicting? I am totally confused by now. If I were not a penny-trader, what should I do based on your analysis? Stay stubbornly long? Stay stubbornly short? Go flat?

[NAV]

May last another couple of hours tommorow morning

As i commented in my blog last, the market looked tired as we approached 1448 and a reaction looked inevitable. My downside targets for the move was SPX 1428-30 (ES 1438-40). I will refine it to SPX 1430-32, which should be tagged tommorow morning. QIDs who overstay on the short side could be driving Kias instead of the BMWs

ES 1440-42 is a key area, which should provide support. If this area is breached, then lower targets like ES 1428-30 will come into play. Need more clues in the form of price action tommorow to determine if that's the case.

In any case, the next move of consequence should be a move to a new recovery highs on the SPX.

Gosh, my head spins, when I read your blog. Between "We are likely heading into recession" to higher and higher Dow, you have every possibility covered

Let's see, whether I understand this post correctly. You are saying that

( a ) "ES 1440-42 is likely to provide a support." Then you said that you do not know, whether it will until the market reaches there. So, it is not a high-confidence scenario.
(b ) Second possible support is 1428-30. You do not know, whether market will bounce from there until we reach there. So, it is not a high-confidence scenario.
( c ) "In any case, the next move of consequence should be a move to a new recovery highs on the SPX." - that means, you somehow know that either ( a ) or ( b ), which are not high-confidence scenarios, will definitely happen.


Isn't that conflicting? I am totally confused by now. If I were not a penny-trader, what should I do based on your analysis? Stay stubbornly long? Stay stubbornly short? Go flat?

Greenie,

As for the "We are likely headed into recession", i made a post beginning of the year that the scenario was invalidated, given that the stock market charged into new highs. The collective wisdom in the stock market knows better than you, me or anyone else.

And i can't understand why your head spins. It's plain english. In the VST we are headed to ES 1440. If 1440 cracks then we goto 1428. Now which part don't you understand ?

Once we reach 1440 or 1428, whatever the case maybe, we will charge to new recovery highs. Now again what don't you understand ?

Please don't use terms like penny trader and such nonsense. It was XD&COX who use to use that condescending term "Nickel and Dime trader". Now you are joining the ring with "Penny trader". I don't know what kind of a trader you are - Billion dollar trader ????.

If i were a VST trader and if we are headed to 1440, then i would of course remain short. If i were a IT trader, i would remain long with appropriate stops of course.

And please don't accuse me of being ambigous in my posts. My posts are as straight as it can get. I don't hedge my opinions - Never !. I can't trade hedged opinions. If you still don't understand watch my tardes, cuz that cannot be ambigous. Anyway not that all what i say matters, cuz you have called me a PERMABULL in your blog, despite hundreds of short trades i have done over the years. Geez, this kind of accusation coming from a Permabear like you, who never makes a single trade on the long side.

Edited by NAV, 12 April 2007 - 07:59 AM.

[OEXCHAOS]

greenie, what the...??? There's nothing more UN ambiguous than a real time trade. NAV does them all the time and in fact he's sorely missed when he's not doing his charity work here. I think it's time for a reality check. I'm calling you on this one. Mark

[NAV]

Mark, Does traders-talk TOS appy to the blogs as well ? [admin edit]

Edited by OEXCHAOS, 12 April 2007 - 08:54 AM.

[OEXCHAOS]

Yes, it does. I've addressed the matter. Mark

[NAV]

Mark, Thanks.

[OEXCHAOS]

NP, You don't and we don't need that stuff. M