16 replies to this topic

[hiker]

this is a delayed daily chart (I am now short btw, but have no idea how long I will stay..will wait for a buy signal on the 13 minute chart, and perhaps the 60 min)

analysts and Jim Cramer have been hitting FCX with upgrades and $80 to $100 targets ever since the PD merger financing was finalized in recent weeks.

Mutual funds apparently have chosen this now larger player for exposure to the copper sector...note the volume candles..have funds completed the buying program? It can take funds a long time to complete the desired accumulation.

Edited by hiker, 12 April 2007 - 09:48 AM.

[PorkLoin]

Tell you what, big guy -- copper going from $2.40 to almost $3.60 in ten weeks shows that stuff is going on. I just read that China's copper imports were up 57%. Old news perhaps and already in the market, but though FCX's daily chart looks like a breather may be in order the weekly and monthly look darn good to me. Doug

[johngeorge]

Tell you what, big guy -- copper going from $2.40 to almost $3.60 in ten weeks shows that stuff is going on. I just read that China's copper imports were up 57%.

Old news perhaps and already in the market, but though FCX's daily chart looks like a breather may be in order the weekly and monthly look darn good to me.

Doug

Speaking of which, Doug

Would you share your thoughts on a small copper/gold stock NTO? Thank you.

Best to you.

johngeorge

[hiker]

let's see if copper goes back down to test H resistance at 3.36 or so that has been overcome in the advance to which you refer. btw, here is my scan of some key commodity stocks, incl FCX as the only primary copper name (BHP and RIO also produce copper)...these were all red at yesterday's close after reaching new highs recently...today's data delayed - GMO, FCX and RIO distance from 52-week high is not correctly calculated by the data source I use (GMO is a moly play..has a couple moly mines)- Symbol /Pct from Yr High / Today's Change - - - - - AAUK Down 1.41% Down 0.08 Down 0.29% - - - - - ATI Down 1.73% Up 0.81 Up 0.73% - - - - - BHP Down 2.37% Down 0.20 Down 0.40% - - - - - CLF Down 0.72% Up 1.22 Up 1.83% - - - - - FCX Down 3.64% Down 0.04 Down 0.06% - - - - - FRG Down 7.13% Up 0.04 Up 0.29% - - - - - GMO Up 53.25% Down 0.13 Down 2.00% - - - - - RIO Down 8.52% Down 0.05 Down 0.12% - - - - - RS Up 0.35% Up 0.90 Up 1.76% - - - - - RTI Down 3.66% Up 0.46 Up 0.50% - - - - - WMB Down 2.69% Up 0.07 Up 0.25%

Edited by hiker, 12 April 2007 - 10:09 AM.

[PorkLoin]

Stopped out on this one, and the weekly chart is flattening out, which is a bit ominous to me. May need some weeks of correction. Still gonna put in a small by order at 1.20 though.

Johngeorge -- gotta do some stuff at work, be back soon.


Best,

Doug

[Cirrus]

I've been long FCX for a while and took just a bit off the table within the last 2 days. I don't know why I did it. I'm really hoping this thing retraces to the 20DEMA or even close so I could load up. I already have plenty buy I'm greedy and want more shares. I also love BHP and RIO to round out my big cap metals holdings. I LOVE all the charts in all time frames. Perhaps the FCX daily trend line will be broken and a ST selloff will result.

[hiker]

covered FCX short on the test of Monday's close...will see from here, and daytrading it right now. looks like 69.80 to 70 is an actionable trade price for now...near-term only

[PorkLoin]

Johngeorge, copper has been fairly strong compared to NTO's share price, which is disappointing to me. Was that a bottom last year? NTO is mostly copper, right (not much gold production)?



Versus gold it looks encouraging.



Up against some obvious chart resistance but the monthly chart looks good to me too and I'd say this one will probably have a nice move through $4.75 and past $5. Big questions are where do copper and gold go now... Both metals have had upward moves recently and some rest may be in order. Copper futures down 7 cents today.

The chart looks good to me as having made an 8 month correction to last January, and regardless of the short-term I think it's likely a good one to hold for some months, anyway.

Best,

Doug

[hiker]

Doug...it is not likely that copper is going to have an easy time making successive weekly closes above 3.60-3.66 H resistance established before the decline to the recent lows. Who knows? just possibilities I am throwing out here. Commodities markets by their nature are full of surprises. Of course, uranium going up for 4 years surprises no one? except those late to the party because of lack of acceptance about uranium as a tradeable sector. btw, I have had 40% of my trading account in copper futures in recent weeks...now flat that trade. Giving it a breather.

Edited by hiker, 12 April 2007 - 12:36 PM.

[johngeorge]

Doug



Thank you for the comprehensive analysis and charts, a great job.

My understanding of NTO is that it is mostly a copper producer. Seems I read somewhere it mined 400,000 ounces of gold last year. It also has some moly claims, but, dont believe they are in production yet.

Regarding the metals copper and gold I am in agreement with you that they could use a rest after the runups the past year. I dont own NTO, but, will keep a close eye on it looking to pick it up a bit cheaper from here assuming gold and copper pull back.

For me energy is still in play with XOM and Canroys paying good dividends while waiting for the prices to move up. Also looking to pick up uranium GMO and FRG on pullbacks. Dont own any uranium stocks I dont buy Canadian exhange stocks...I have to pay too much..so US exchange stocks are for me.

Thank you again for your time, diligence, and insightful comments.

Best to you

johngeorge

Johngeorge, copper has been fairly strong compared to NTO's share price, which is disappointing to me. Was that a bottom last year? NTO is mostly copper, right (not much gold production)?



Versus gold it looks encouraging.



Up against some obvious chart resistance but the monthly chart looks good to me too and I'd say this one will probably have a nice move through $4.75 and past $5. Big questions are where do copper and gold go now... Both metals have had upward moves recently and some rest may be in order. Copper futures down 7 cents today.

The chart looks good to me as having made an 8 month correction to last January, and regardless of the short-term I think it's likely a good one to hold for some months, anyway.

Best,

Doug