4 replies to this topic

[arbman]

So, the dollar bottom might be near. 10 yr Treasuries might even double bottom there around $106. The stocks should peak or stay in the range at that time or the end of April. I don't think there will be a decline into the OPEX... - kisa

[redfoliage2]

So, the dollar bottom might be near. 10 yr Treasuries might even double bottom there around $106.

The stocks should peak or stay in the range at that time or the end of April.

I don't think there will be a decline into the OPEX...

- kisa

But this may be just a set up for a mini crash in the OPEX week, unless it takes place tomorrow after the PPI.

Edited by redfoliage2, 12 April 2007 - 11:48 AM.

[arbman]

I think the stocks bottom tomorrow with a mini-crash or not (even without a lower low btw). I think the decline for the bonds is a bit longer term than that. This injection will cause the yields to drift higher until the entire market comes down together probably after the OPEX. There is no growth and the higher inflation is simply eroding the bottom line here... Why? Although the growth issues led a bit lately (semis since last week and industrials today), this seems to me the spill over money since the energy is still leading also. But the utilities are retreating, so probably either a rotation into growth or the last speculative money thinking wrongly that the utilities are rotating, but in fact the cooling is accelerating and the growth is nearing zero. I actually favor the second scenario, why? As I said, I think the inflation is eroding the bottom line and the energy is leading and the crowd always wrongly assume the excess liquidity is the improving fundamentals and are risking in the wrong areas in the second attempts to rally to the recent highs... - kisa

Edited by kisacik, 12 April 2007 - 12:05 PM.

[fib_1618]

I think the inflation is eroding the bottom line and the energy is leading and the crowd always wrongly assume the excess liquidity is the improving fundamentals and are risking in the wrong areas in the second attempts to rally to the recent highs...

Say what?

Fib

[arbman]

I mean I am not trying to place a bearish spin to every rally here, but when the speculation surged (Equity P/C came below 0.6), the tech stocks rallied, this was a wrong confidence since the leadership has been in the utilities and energy from the lows and the market immediately sold. You can see how the inflation efforts of the central banks is deceiving the investors here. The breath during the inflationary blow off is always misleading, yet even RUT also gave the sell signals since last week, the dollar has been declining from the lows, the evidence is all there. This 20 wk cycle will be left translated imho and the top will be here before the April is out. I do trade long, but the resource issues not tech, there is no real growth at the moment from what I can see... - kisa