SPX COT Big Contract Nets Commercial & Small Positions
Started by
jmicou
, Apr 13 2007 11:45 PM
6 replies to this topic
#1
jmicou
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Posted 13 April 2007 - 11:45 PM
Prepared before the close today:
#2
Douglas
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Posted 14 April 2007 - 08:12 AM
Do you also track T-Bond COT data? I have been tracking it for donkey's years but on paper. Presently I believe it is making a strong case for a bond rally - large small speculator and large speculator short positions and large commerical long position. This is definitely counter the strong down trend in T-Bonds, so some sort of trigger will be needed. The relative position of these three has been a pretty good indicator over the years of the potential for a trend reversal.
#3
jmicou
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Posted 14 April 2007 - 08:23 AM
I don't keep data on them, but do look at those COT charts. Came to the same conclusion about the COT and now looking for a good technical set up for at least a tradeable bounce.Do you also track T-Bond COT data? I have been tracking it for donkey's years but on paper. Presently I believe it is making a strong case for a bond rally - large small speculator and large speculator short positions and large commerical long position. This is definitely counter the strong down trend in T-Bonds, so some sort of trigger will be needed. The relative position of these three has been a pretty good indicator over the years of the potential for a trend reversal.
#5
skott
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Posted 14 April 2007 - 11:39 PM
I have to admit I don't see how this is usefull or predictive.
#6
jmicou
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Posted 15 April 2007 - 12:27 AM
I have to admit I don't see how this is usefull or predictive.
That's ok. Some do. So, just posting the charts for those who might.
#7
PorkLoin
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Posted 15 April 2007 - 10:01 AM
1994 - momentum was waning and I was wondering about a market top.
During 1994 it looked like a triangle was forming, which coming during an uptrend often forecasts a thrust higher afterwards, many times a final thrust before a substantial downmove.
The thrust came, but the market just kept on going and going. I wasn't watching the COT at the time, but during 1995 I looked at it, and saw how bullish the Commercials had been at the end of 1994 and in early 1995.
COT isn't foolproof nor all that great a stand-alone indicator IMO, but I certainly think there is value in it as a filter or one of the items in one's trading tacklebox.
Best,
Doug
