15 replies to this topic

[raleigh]

So, which is it? I was led to believe volume leads price, but da Cheif shocked me by saying the opposite i.e price leads volume. So which?

[n83]

no warning whatsover on any of the corrections esp from NYUD

There's a big difference between corrections against a major trend and that of turns in broader based trends in general.

The A/D lines of both breadth and volume are longer term money flow indicators of the market dynamics that directly effect the direction of price. When they move in unison in one direction, you have a solid price trend in this same direction. If one is moving one way and the other is not confirming, you are either consolidating, the price pattern will become sluggish (the NASDAQ), or you're about to move in a new direction all depending on the conditions that drive money flow at any given point in time. Bear markets have different rules when using these tools than that of bull markets. It's just the way things are.

am not asking you to make me/anyone else see something you might

Isn't that the main objective of reading newsletters and/or message boards - to discover something that you may not be seeing that would make you a better trader?? And then, does every analytical tool work for you the same way it may for someone else? If not, isn't better to either ask questions to provide better clarity than to debunk something in which you may not have the niche to understand its usage? I've personally have worked with just about every single indicator out there over my tenure in this business, some have worked, some haven't, but I have given all of them at least 2 years of every day practice before I've made my decision of whether it's right for me or not. After all, the tool was created for a purpose by the creator - it's our job as analysts to determine if it's worth the paper the mathematical formula was written on or not.

thanks sincerely for being civil

I always try to be civil because I know that one day you and I will be on the same side of things and I will then become your best friend. But at the same time, it won't be because I agree with you or anyone else's assessment of things, but it will be because the market tells me to be positioned accordingly.

Fib

again i am not short the market..if had not clarified this already and am NOT a bear

am trying to say anything that has a lag of 7-10 mths as the a/d seemed to show back in '99-'00 is useless imo for an indicator to position oneself..

the best indicator to position oneself is time and time itself..give something enough time and it seems to follow what one may think it indicates

in the LONG term the market moves up w population innovation etc..no brainer

then why are folks stating stuff as if it works all the time ....

Trading is based on probabilities. If you seek certainty, try religion.

i agree hence my statement earlier-g

N83,

I nominate you as the board expert on ALL that does not work. Amazing that Fib as been correctly bullish since the August bottom and called the 2003 bottom with all these ridiculous tools that just do not work. He must be fooling us and have some other secret method that really works that he just won't share.




And as I keep saying. Everyone will just love Da Cheif at the actual top at which point he will reverse.

thanks for taking the trouble of nominating me-gg

a variety of other indicators also called the 2003 bottom and the 2002 bottom and the 2001 bottomS

nothing special about any

they all work or do not 'work'

never thought i'd generate so many page views

to think that i have posted useless stuff per some folks-

Edited by n83, 14 April 2007 - 03:42 PM.

[fib_1618]

I was led to believe volume leads price, but da Cheif shocked me by saying the opposite i.e price leads volume.

It's neither....volume does not precede price, it confirms it. Breadth leads price.

Think of it this way:

It's not people buying that make prices go up, it's prices going up that make people buy.

and

It's not people selling that make prices move lower, it's prices moving lower than make people sell.

Cause and effect.

am trying to say anything that has a lag of 7-10 mths as the a/d seemed to show back in '99-'00 is useless imo for an indicator to position oneself..

Then that is your decision to make. But in the bigger scheme of things, knowing that the NYAD line was declining from 1998 to 2000 while the weighted market indexes were moving higher, would had given you the insight to know that it wasn't a "new economy" and that "technical analysis didn't work anymore" as many were chanting during this time - while at the same time - you also knew that once the advance finally terminated, it was going to end badly, and you would have positioned yourself accordingly based on this same substantive information and not chase the end of a parabolic move because everyone else was.

Again, this is big picture stuff and covers everyone and anyone who trades. How you utilize it in your own trading style is totally up to you just like everything else technical.

Fib

[colion]

So, which is it? I was led to believe volume leads price, but da Cheif shocked me by saying the opposite i.e price leads volume. So which?

Pick your guru and go with it or do your own study.

[n83]

I was led to believe volume leads price, but da Cheif shocked me by saying the opposite i.e price leads volume.

It's neither....volume does not precede price, it confirms it. Breadth leads price.

Think of it this way:

It's not people buying that make prices go up, it's prices going up that make people buy.

and

It's not people selling that make prices move lower, it's prices moving lower than make people sell.

Cause and effect.

am trying to say anything that has a lag of 7-10 mths as the a/d seemed to show back in '99-'00 is useless imo for an indicator to position oneself..

Then that is your decision to make. But in the bigger scheme of things, knowing that the NYAD line was declining from 1998 to 2000 while the weighted market indexes were moving higher, would had given you the insight to know that it wasn't a "new economy" and that "technical analysis didn't work anymore" as many were chanting during this time - while at the same time - you also knew that once the advance finally terminated, it was going to end badly, and you would have positioned yourself accordingly based on this same substantive information and not chase the end of a parabolic move because everyone else was.

Again, this is big picture stuff and covers everyone and anyone who trades. How you utilize it in your own trading style is totally up to you just like everything else technical.

Fib

understand the possible value of the a/d but like i said anything with that large a lag is useless as the clues can come from other indicators much more quickly

so the a/d started to advance prior to the '02-'03 lows signaling a divergence w the indices that were dropping then..so what if it was so early

after all one trades the indices/stocks and not the a/d line

Edited by n83, 15 April 2007 - 09:21 PM.

[SemiBizz]

http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif



Let's see if this helps... Looking from the left until the final top, you can see a progression of higher highs on higher volume. That is a quality of volume or Bull Market Rally. The difference between this rally and that one is there has never been any quality of volume. And more importantly with volume at a relatively high level, the price slumped. You can argue the case that we're making the big sideways move like we did before Nasdaq took off to the moon. I think that's what the boyz have in mind also. I'm expecting a roman candle, a quick move over 2600 in the next... let's say 6 - 8 weeks or sooner. I think we're about to get a blowoff here, if we don't make a sharp move down this week, prices are going to migrate North until a Point of Recognition is acheived. I'm watching the US $ make lows, but the stock market seems to love it... there's probably a macro to foreign money being attracted to relatively cheap (in their currencies) stock prices... And if they are willing to convert to US$ to do that, that could send the currency traders a completely new message about where the dollar might be headed.



Now most of you know, that I was bearish about this rally that started in August, but that's because I see we're in a bear market rally ( no quality of volume). I am an agnostic, I don't need to be right, I just want to make money here. We're going to have volume come in the market starting this week. Considering the sideways move in this chart, I'd be a fool not to consider the case that we might just be basing ahead of one of those pole vaults we saw starting in '99..