3 replies to this topic

[Trend-Signals]

Money Flow positive divergence with higher/high price actions with markets breaking out.
http://www.investors...age_id=18750334

Risky business to bet against "Breaking out" unless we have evidences showing a failure of "Breakout". So far, price actions are progressively confirming "Breakout Retest" scenario which I commented.

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SPX traded higher/ high to 1453.11, breaking above the recent trading range, 1448.73, 4/10 and above rising wedge formation on VST 4wk price actions with the 1429.22 low on 3/30.

DOW traded higher/high to 12615.38 breaking above 12593.60 with the 12242.60 low on 3/30. Nasdaq traded higher/high to 2491.94 near to 2500 resistance. OEX also traded above the recent up trend line making new high to 665.57.NYA traded higher/high to 9522.38 at all time high breaking out of the 2/20 high of 9458.47; as commented before, NYA is leading other major markets.
However, Qs traded to 44.72 which is below the resistance of 44.75 on 4/9 showing slightly weaker price actions that other major markets and indices due to AAPL trading down for the day.

For SPX, Dow and OEX, Money flow on daily shows positive divergence breaking above the Feb 07 high. This can also be seen through MACD actions showing positive divergence comparing to the Feb 07 price actions. Therefore, internal price action continued to show positive price action confirming the anticipation of higher price actions breaking above the Feb 2007 high progressively confirming the “Breakout Retest” scenario which I commented since the March double bottom.

Market breadth is continuing to improve even though it is not as strong sending mixed signals with negative divergences; however, as noted before, we will see narrowing breadth at this stage of market and economic cycles. For example, $NASI daily is continuing to improve after reversing from the breakout support, as noted a couple of weeks ago, which is confirming the “Breakout Support” market action which I commented. Based on the $NASI internal strength as we can see on MACD staying above the zero, with the continued strength staying above the zeroline, Nasdaq internal is positive confirming the price action even if it is not as strong as the one which we have seen during 2003.

Market volume during the last week was relatively moderate going into earning season. I am anticipating higher volume tradings during the earning season and going into OE week. Major market ETFs shorting activities shown on volume is not significant.

In summary, I am anticipating SPX to retest SPX 1461, the Feb 2007 high, and will show a breakout number before it pulls back. I will reassess market strength during the OE week.




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VIX is closed below the recent support and weekly continues to trend lower while VXN is trading above the relative VIX support. TRIN and TRINQ closed in mid range which is favorable to vst outlook.

DELL, as one of stronger performed stocks, is continuing to trade up after breaking above the down trend line as alerted on 4/6. With new management by Mr. Dell, market is positive on the change. HPQ is forming triangle on intraday 60m.AAPL closed at supports, 8mo, Jul 2006 up trend support and 3.5 mo, Nov 2006 down trend breakout support.


http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYA&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&i=p08586127611&a=61280848&r=924.png

http://www.stockchar...09398&r=374.png
http://www.stockchar...77535&r=859.png
http://www.stockchar...40300&r=617.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=2&dy=15&i=p73797548221&a=79285156&r=517.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&i=p22648394504&a=76929034&r=579.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=4&mn=8&dy=0&i=p49229126946&a=78987374&r=825.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&i=p31631774778&a=76966992&r=329.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=W&yr=4&mn=3&dy=0&i=p72794457382&a=76929550&r=647.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&i=p21609042622&a=76909044&r=764.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$COMPQ&p=W&yr=4&mn=3&dy=0&i=p53935525265&a=77295648&r=218.png

[Trend-Signals]

With a caution on Max Pain during the OE Week.

Caveat: QQQQ max pain 44 for the OE WEEK.


qqqq - May07
Expires: May , 2007
32.000 738597700
33.000 669992500
34.000 602399800
35.000 535770500
36.000 469990500
37.000 404855200
38.000 340681200
39.000 281172200
40.000 224785200
41.000 172628900
42.000 126023300
43.000 96625200
44.000 93865800 -Maximum-Pain Theory Value
45.000 113420400
46.000 148908000
47.000 191677900
48.000 236218000
49.000 281194200
50.000 327037600
51.000 372913400
52.000 418793100
53.000 464726300
54.000 510659600

[Woody]

TS I may have missed it in this or a prior post, What are you using to measure "Money Flow" Thanks CW

[Trend-Signals]

I use customized indicators, but you can also see common money flow such as CMF/chaikin which is showing positive divergence.



addendum: For example, but not all major indices and markets are showing the same positive divergences, but my overall market analysis shows positive D. But as stated before, I am not as bullish as Jun-Jul 2006 bottom, even so, trading against "Breakout" without breakout failure is not a good idea.

http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$OEX&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&i=p91069814814&a=82807263&r=372.png