6 replies to this topic

[airedale88]

updated chart originally posted 3/19. i've added more of the previous 20 wk commonality cycle trough marks just for reference and have drawn in a new possible channel developing. it's on a steep ascent and with an expected 4.5 yr nest of cycle lows due in mid/late july i'm not sure if it will be valid. the next upside target remains the nominal 10 wk cycle projection of 1471.10 +/-12pts. if SPX can overshoot that price projection it would add to the credence of that new possible channel IMO.

[airedale88]

updated XLF chart first posted in january. the march 20 wk cycle low came in right on time. the next nest of cycle lows due in july will be interesting.

[Cirrus]

It just may happen that way...who knows. You're work has been outstanding Airedale.

[airedale88]

It just may happen that way...who knows. You're work has been outstanding Airedale.

thnx for the kind words Cirrus. perhaps the financial sector, if it continues to lag, is suggecting some weakness into that 4.5 yr low that is not showing yet in broad indexes. btw the cycle boxes drawn in are not indicating possible price targets for the XLF at the 4.5 yr bottom, just the time window. XLF's tagging of the march 20 wk cycle low box i drew in january was accidental, there was no price projection at the time i created the chart.

[MangeMan]

XLF ain't lagging today for sure

[Cirrus]

I would still lean for a 1998 style 'correction'--in the Jun-Oct time frame. It's more a gut feel and total guess than based on research. Airedale's cycle stuff is the only thing that points in that direction. I guess that's a good thing towards getting it right.

[esther231]

Airedale, your work is amazing. Thanks for the updates.