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Expecting a wild sell off


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#1 .Blizzard

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Posted 17 April 2007 - 02:47 PM

on Thursday/Friday..... Da boyz OPEX game is almost over ;) They are doing their best to maximize their profits with the CALL options Today the OEX guys have started to load puts..... :D I am currently short the ES from 1474 (75%)...the rest below 1440 SPX cash

Edited by .Blizzard, 17 April 2007 - 02:51 PM.

 
 
 


#2 Tor

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Posted 17 April 2007 - 02:52 PM

A lot expecting it, i think any selloff will end up[ being a short correction to breakouit points only.
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#3 89S10

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Posted 17 April 2007 - 03:13 PM

Can anyone explain, briefly, the mechanics of how imbalances between the number of put or call options can "cause" the market to move? I understand the notion that index option players are "smart." When they buy a lot of puts, then we are getting a forecast from them, but is there a mechanical connection that forces the market one way or the other?

#4 gm_general

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Posted 17 April 2007 - 03:41 PM

on Thursday/Friday.....

Da boyz OPEX game is almost over ;)

They are doing their best to maximize their profits with the CALL options

Today the OEX guys have started to load puts..... :D

I am currently short the ES from 1474 (75%)...the rest below 1440 SPX cash


OEX boys are a contarian indicator usually, so loading up on puts is probably bullish. That having been said, QQQQ max pain is 44, BUT 45 is a close second.

#5 dasein

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Posted 17 April 2007 - 03:54 PM

A lot expecting it, i think any selloff will end up being a short correction to breakouit points only.


agree there, but also think OPEX was the magnet, but as I surmised last week, there shouldnt be any selloff before thursday PM. gaps have been filled and there could be a wolfe wave setup on the indices, for example on the spx, current target would be below 1400. We are getting some rotation already.

Im pretty undecided here, alas.

FWIW,

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best,
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#6 ed rader

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Posted 17 April 2007 - 04:40 PM

A lot expecting it, i think any selloff will end up[ being a short correction to breakouit points only.


must not be too many expecting it if the market keeps going up.

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#7 SemiBizz

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Posted 17 April 2007 - 04:50 PM

April is a trending month. Today was #1 down day on the nasdaq, if nasdaq can put together 4 more days in a row down, there's your trend reversal. Other than that, it's all countertrend down, that includes the "crash"... at no time did we string 5 days in a row of down.
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#8 Mr Dev

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Posted 17 April 2007 - 05:25 PM

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#9 Mr Dev

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Posted 17 April 2007 - 05:40 PM

This type of seasonal trending stuff means absolutely nothing to me. 50/50 stuff, and f anyone here trades off it

I would be surprised,.. just clearing out my junk.

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#10 denleo

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Posted 17 April 2007 - 05:57 PM

Hey Mr Dev, I am expecting a pull back on S&P to close a gap down to 1461 on June S&P. It could be a choppy correction. If selling is strong, then maybe the market could be in bigger trouble (although right now I don't see that). Internals are pretty strong, so for now, I am not ready for betting on a bigger decline other than a pull back. What do you think? Denleo