11 replies to this topic

[Trend-Signals]

As with the most of Common moving average trading systems with “whipsaw”, ema 3, -3 has more whipsaw because price has to trade down in order to trigger signals by 3 days and 3 displaced days – therefore, 6 days lag.

Market typically trends only 25% of the time, so during the typical 75% trading range market, one would be repeatedly whipsawed.

Do you know what I am pointing out?

Would love to hear your view on this ...

Thanks


http://stockcharts.c...35613&r=209.png

[hiker]

contact Jea Yu about his page 17 in the book mentioned earlier today, at which point he explains why the displaced 3 ema is what he calls a powerful tool...vs. the headfakes, etc. he experiences with the traditional 3 ema.

I am not going to attempt to explain this to folks who have not read the entire book. It would not be a fair representation of how this data may or may not be used to benefit a trader.

I shorted QQQQ today at 45.28 with a real-time post at the link below..let's see how the trade works out near-term....you and I both know trading is art and science in application:

http://www.websiteto...post?id=1836715

it was a countertrend trade entry tonight in after-hours...nothing more...no sell signals on the daily...no MA crossovers..price is simply above all three MA's as it often has been during the advance.

read the book

Edited by hiker, 17 April 2007 - 07:18 PM.

[Trend-Signals]

Well, it is well known system as with other various moving average system which I tested literally 100s. Also, I have proven the effective trading system as I commented on my posts.

About the market action, I commented this morning that I am anticipating a pull back.

Also noted that SPX 1475 is the resistance as the high.


I came across his article on tradestation and other; as well as in a book store in the past.



http://www.traders-t...showtopic=69149

http://www.investors...age_id=18860853

http://www.investors...age_id=18842093


btw, I was trying help you...



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About the market action, I commented this morning that I am anticipating a pull back.

Also noted that SPX 1475 is the resistance as the high.

Edited by Trend-Signals, 17 April 2007 - 07:20 PM.

[Mr Dev]

I would say that it's pretty tough to make a judgment call for or against something you haven't seen work in real time with a cursory view or testing. The real test...equals a real trade or two. I heard a friend once say,.. when asked if his girl friends breast were real,... his reply was,,....if you can touch them... they're real. I think that's what hiker is sharing here! Well almost.

[hiker]

TS - I understand.

let's look at the entire data set on the GS weekly

Edited by hiker, 17 April 2007 - 07:28 PM.

[securelstmile]

Hiker, I had the lows in qid in the 50.30-50.75 range with some very basic trendlines and divergences. The qid has gotten to this area several times but with a higher rsi each time. Macd is also in a postion where reversals have taken place. Also there is strong support on the pnf right around here. Also, and probably most important I just don't like to see rallies ahead of earnings. I prefer to see a take down to grab shares prior to positive earnings. I bought an initial position on Friday and more today. In the morning I will be adding. One other thing to add. That gap on Friday was not a breakaway gap by my definition. I think it shouild fill. I don't like to give a reasoning to my trades because I usually am looking at soooo many things including some of the smart traders like you. I really don't ever make a judgement based on other people assessments (been there done that) but I do like to learn new things like I have today from you. This is a hedge to my long individual stock positions. Thanks again for sharing the 3,-3 indicator. I am going to follow it for my individual trades. if I am wrong on this qid thing I will know soon enough.

Edited by securelstmile, 17 April 2007 - 07:29 PM.

[Trend-Signals]

TS - I understand.

let's look at the entire data set on the GS weekly

Well, as you said, you have your system, so bringing out ema 3, -3 is just a start and a good one.
btw, did you notice my ma/ema setup with 3, 5, 8, 13, 20 ma posted on stockcharts.com public list during Oct-Nov 2005 when I called Oct 2005 bottom?
I did well on the list, but I felt cluster phobia on the list; so I decided not to stay on.

Anyway, I just wanted to point out the problems which I encountered. I tried to help posters on cs with my backtests about whipsaws with test results.

I now need to get back on my project, then like to do my regular EOD market comment.

Again, the point which I was making about whipsaws was to help you, just in case, you overlook those.

For my trading, 3 ema confirmation is often a good one to use.

[hiker]

thanks for the description, SS, of what you are trading in terms of signals on the QID. Fib's chat right now is full of possibliities of the upside potential, on the condition that some IF's are met. regarding, QID and QLD...I still do not see how it is practical to move 20k shares or more at a crack... in and out of either and get decent fills, as with QQQQ...and forget about extended hours trading on QID. thanks TS.

Edited by hiker, 17 April 2007 - 07:40 PM.

[Trend-Signals]

hiker



I am seeing different things which some may not notice.

Strange that the post time is 08:44 PM, but your edit time is 08:40 PM


Well, I'd better do my to-do...

Have a nice night

http://img337.images...47/hikerii3.png

Edited by Trend-Signals, 17 April 2007 - 07:56 PM.

[PorkLoin]

Strange that the post time is 08:44 PM, but your edit time is 08:40 PM

That's how Hiker can do so many great short-term trades.... He can go back in time!!