At this point, there is probably more room for a trading range until May, I would favor more downside than upside first here though. The USD is at the multi year lows, confirming the too much liquidity hypothesis. However, these could be all near another peak at this point ahead of the 10 wk cycle low in May and another low that is still projected for the summer. The increased volatility actually confirms that there is indeed a high probability that the liquidity is getting less according to the following commercial credit growth...
Good luck,
- kisa