1 reply to this topic

[tommyt]

back, after spending 2 1/2 weeks in Thailand...fun place and I highly recommend it, good place to destress...wow, the bull has really made a statement, and now as it approaches 13K it'll be overbot, and get thinner with divergences...time to exit longs and look to enter shorts in the next 2 days...but only for a trade, as too early to say more is warranted:

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=t75892470206&r=2807.png

[Cirrus]

I'm still looking for my 1998 style scenario. I think we have another 2 to 3 weeks of possible upside to new highs. Afterwards, the floor falls out. I don't think we'll have many shorts left when we top. Everyone is looking to short a double top, here. I'm thinking the seriousness of the US mortgage security market and housing problems will fully materialize by mid to late summer but the market will discount it a few months in advance. A quick, crushing correction will be just what the doctor ordered to temporarily blast commodities, allow LT yields to temporarily surge lower (helping housing) and allow the Fed to lower rates 50 to 100 BPs over a couple of meetings.

Could we get a low in July and a retest in early fall? It's just a possible scenario. Of course it could go even higher with the SP 500 just 50 points or so away from an ATH.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=W&st=1998-01-01&en=1998-12-31&i=p18527604780&a=104078246&r=577.png