6 replies to this topic

[airedale88]

the preliminary projection for the 6 day cycle was never triggered by price action yesterday, a short term positive for the minor trend in conjunction with a still continuing strong intermediate and major trend. yesterdays' chart was the june es, but all broad market cash indexes are in the same condition.

there are no larger cycle FLD's (price projection lines) above current price action. the last upside crossing was the 10 wk cycle fld and price targets have been met.

a nominal 20 wk cycle price projection can be made using extrapolated 1/2 and full span centered mv avgs and a mid channel pause created by the topping and bottoming of the last nominal 5 wk cycle.

that projection suggests 1516 +/- 15 pts.

we're approx 4/5 wks from the next nominal 10 wk nest of lows, and 14/15 wks from the 4.5 yr nest of cycle lows. no indication yet of a top in for this movement.

[airedale88]

INDU envelope/NYSE breadth..

continues healthy for now. minor INDU price high/non confirmation breadth indicator high normal on a rapid thrust up. should INDU continue to make new highs at or near upper envelopes with a series of deteriorating breadth non confirms that would generate a red flag, indicating an intermediate decline is at hand. (to the expected july 4.5 yr low perhaps).

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p22135382622&r=8212.png













http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p87644193072&r=7246.png

[airedale88]

INDU and SPX daily charts with longer term envelopes.

a move up to the projected 20 wk cycle target for SPX would put both indexes at upper envelopes that in the past have slowed, halted, and or reversed price movement.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&i=p43424184678&r=1928.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&i=p43424184678&r=6083.png

[bobalou]

my vhf chart of nya ,gave a sign, 7 wks of up,do you have any thing w/ that projection/time frame thx

[chris3403]

Today, 06:01 AM but aire didn't these longer term envelopes just turn upwards in the last day or two and doesn't that imply your targets will be exceeded? gl/gt chris

[airedale88]

chris, these are not Hurst based envelopes since they are not drawn on a correctly centered (lagged) moving average. the correlation between them and Hurst cycle price projections is not lockstep.

[Echo]

INDU envelope/NYSE breadth..

continues healthy for now. minor INDU price high/non confirmation breadth indicator high normal on a rapid thrust up. should INDU continue to make new highs at or near upper envelopes with a series of deteriorating breadth non confirms that would generate a red flag, indicating an intermediate decline is at hand. (to the expected july 4.5 yr low perhaps).

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p22135382622&r=8212.png













http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p87644193072&r=7246.png

Note we had a close above the upper band with a declining breadth indicator, the latter exhibiting lower highs and lower lows in the past couple weeks.

Echo