17 replies to this topic

[Tor]

Is this a correct interpretation. Seems there are a lot calling for such a top. Personally I took the hit, and thankfully so, and going to wait for some sign of weakness before shorting. The setup maybe in play already, but can bring myself to act on it. Hvae a great weekend.

[Mtrader]

Great. You followed the lesson from the child: "But Daddy, market is going up".

[BigBadBear]

95%

[hedgehawk]

Is this a correct interpretation.

Seems there are a lot calling for such a top.

Personally I took the hit, and thankfully so, and going to wait for some sign of weakness before shorting. The setup maybe in play already, but can bring myself to act on it.

Hvae a great weekend.

Shorted DIA and SPY on the close for a trade.

[arbman]

Judging by this board, maybe 90% are short or expecting a top?

I think it is ok to be selectively short, but it is hard to accomodate a large index short other than a hedge to the long positions for now or very short term (day or two) for now. So far let me emphasize that the declines have been basically bought on the Fed's money for the past 2 wks. This situation and this very fast pace up will not last forever...

I don't think you would be too shocked if I tell you that the high grade credit risk is priced higher than Feb highs in the spreads at the moment, even though the indices made new highs, also the implied volatilities barely budged down this week despite the rally implying also the increased risk...

The market rarely advances before settling down these worries, so a pull back is probably given here...

- kisa

[grizzly]

I've learned a lot from experienced traders on this and other boards. It is clear that the market is in an uptrend, and I've learned not to short an uptrend, but I have also learned to take profits when they are offered, especially when the recent rise has been steep and market indicators are overbought.. Accordingly, I have been taking a lot of profits recently. This has put me in a high cash position. My prior inclination would have been to go short, however, I have learned not to short this market, and am staying in cash until things are clearer, and will likely go long again with much of this cash after the next minimal pullback. What I worry about is I am the proverbial Joe six pack who should be faded?

[pdx5]

The component of market I follow, SPX, has been extremely predictable so far. It is acting entirely in concert with fundamentals. The earnings have come out better than estimates...so far. Inflation numbers have been tame. Fed is not threatening immediate hikes in rates. And most of all, forward earnings are projected to grow at close to 10% during remainder of 2007. So, I will be surprised if SPX does not advance to 1550+ this summer. At that juncture, there is a bifurcation in the road ahead. Either the effects of gas prices, housing decline and food inflation will take its toll on the consumer by late summer/early fall -or- things could chug along at present rate for another quarter or so. Either way, I expect a 15% or more decline in SPX during 2007. But just not yet.

[arbman]

Pdx, they are achieving or beating the lowered estimates for the most part, fyi and guiding back to before they lowered them. So, it is not like it is reaccelerating, this is an attempt to inflate the P/Es. But the markets are annoyingly irrational and I expect them to continue to behave irrationally given the amount of liquidity out there. But that liquidity and the irrationality will both end before summer, imho. I am more bullish into winter though, especially if the indices gives a discount

[pdx5]

Kisa, that pretty much jives with my thinking. I am sitting with 60% cash and will soon go 100% cash. Fed does not have unlimited ammo, contrary to what many believe. They can not ignore the falling US$ for very long.

Edited by pdx5, 20 April 2007 - 09:12 PM.

[The End]

Kisa, that pretty much jives with my thinking. I am sitting with 60% cash and will
soon go 100% cash. Fed does not have unlimited ammo, contrary to what many
believe. They can not ignore the falling US$ for very long.

Regardless of what they say, The fed wants a weak doo-lar. It's the only way to pay off our debt (with cheap money).

Inflate or Die!