21 replies to this topic

[eminimee]

I'm expecting at least 1405/08 area, if it's topping a B wave...should be deeper down to the 1327/33 area.

Watching XBD for clues..

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=9&dy=0&i=p27661874079&a=100887420&r=8106.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$XBD&p=D&yr=1&mn=4&dy=0&i=p99858601511&a=85988535&r=9265.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$XBD&p=60&yr=0&mn=2&dy=18&i=p56925802308&a=102368544&r=8286.png

[fib_1618]

A "B" wave?

Based on pattern structure, retracement levels, and the indicators you've provided, no, it's not.

Do you have an alternate count?

Fib

[da_cheif]

3rd waves allways start out as B waves.....snort

[Russ]

The trendline off of the lows of Oct. Nov. and Feb. creates a wedge - with your top line - that spx is running into now. This is also Eric Hadik's date April 23 that he was looking for a top.

Edited by Russ, 23 April 2007 - 11:33 AM.

[fib_1618]

The trendline off of the lows of Oct. Nov. and Feb. creates a wedge - with your top line - that spx is running into now. This is also Eric Hadik's date April 23 that he was looking for a top.

Price pattern structure, as well as daily volume characteristics, do not support a wedge or diagonal.

Possible channel resistance? Maybe. (I see you adjusted the dates of your post while writing this) Possible snapback to what was the previous trend? Maybe. Many volume oscillators are scraping the ceiling right now. But observations like these can only compliment and have very little to do with Elliott methodology in the strictest sense.

Fib

[Russ]

Price pattern structure, as well as daily volume characteristics, do not support a wedge or diagonal.

Possible channel resistance? Maybe. (I see you adjusted the dates of your post while writing this) Possible snapback to what was the previous trend? Maybe. Many volume oscillators are scraping the ceiling right now. But observations like these can only compliment and have very little to do with Elliott methodology in the strictest sense.
Fib

Here it is, I think we can count five waves up now too.

[fib_1618]

Here it is, I think we can count five waves up now too.

I count 7.

Fib

[Russ]

Are the last two really part of the 5th? The Dow looks very much like 5. Wave counting has problems it is open to interpretation. The main point it the trendlines it is running up against now, they were support until Martin Armstrong's pi cycle panic hit, now they look like pretty strong restistance.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=p76404918351&r=158.png

Here it is, I think we can count five waves up now too.

I count 7.

Fib

Edited by Russ, 23 April 2007 - 12:23 PM.

[fib_1618]

The Dow looks very much like 5. Wave counting has problems it is open to interpretation.

Wave counting is the most difficult methodology out there because many fail to follow the rules laid out by Elliott himself and fail to identify correctly the degree of trend. For example, what you visually see as a 5 wave structure on the Dow breaks the most important rule of this analysis....third waves can not be the shortest wave. Aside from that, there is also uniformity between "like" market indexes that need to be considered. If you compare the Dow chart with that of the SPX chart, this same price pattern uniformity is lost.

I will also point out that you are missing the most important element in all of this on both your charts - that of daily volume. Remember that Elliott provides a labeling to what we see as basic technical analysis, so if the basic TA isn't there, then you're count idea will surly fail to unwind as expected as well.

Fib

[Russ]

Just because volume is not included in my gif. does not mean I am not looking at it.

Are you saying that Elliot's rules have never been violated?

The Dow looks very much like 5. Wave counting has problems it is open to interpretation.

Wave counting is the most difficult methodology out there because many fail to follow the rules laid out by Elliott himself and fail to identify correctly the degree of trend. For example, what you visually see as a 5 wave structure on the Dow breaks the most important rule of this analysis....third waves can not be the shortest wave. Aside from that, there is also uniformity between "like" market indexes that need to be considered. If you compare the Dow chart with that of the SPX chart, this same price pattern uniformity is lost.

I will also point out that you are missing the most important element in all of this on both your charts - that of daily volume. Remember that Elliott provides a labeling to what we see as basic technical analysis, so if the basic TA isn't there, then you're count idea will surly fail to unwind as expected as well.

Fib