A "B" wave?
#1
Posted 23 April 2007 - 06:17 AM
Watching XBD for clues..
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=9&dy=0&i=p27661874079&a=100887420&r=8106.png
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$XBD&p=D&yr=1&mn=4&dy=0&i=p99858601511&a=85988535&r=9265.png
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$XBD&p=60&yr=0&mn=2&dy=18&i=p56925802308&a=102368544&r=8286.png
#2
Posted 23 April 2007 - 10:02 AM
Based on pattern structure, retracement levels, and the indicators you've provided, no, it's not.A "B" wave?
Do you have an alternate count?
Fib
Better to ignore me than abhor me.
“Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it” - Benjamin Franklin
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#3
Posted 23 April 2007 - 10:36 AM
#4
Posted 23 April 2007 - 11:23 AM
Edited by Russ, 23 April 2007 - 11:33 AM.
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong
http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/
#5
Posted 23 April 2007 - 12:07 PM
Price pattern structure, as well as daily volume characteristics, do not support a wedge or diagonal.The trendline off of the lows of Oct. Nov. and Feb. creates a wedge - with your top line - that spx is running into now. This is also Eric Hadik's date April 23 that he was looking for a top.
Possible channel resistance? Maybe. (I see you adjusted the dates of your post while writing this) Possible snapback to what was the previous trend? Maybe. Many volume oscillators are scraping the ceiling right now. But observations like these can only compliment and have very little to do with Elliott methodology in the strictest sense.
Fib
Better to ignore me than abhor me.
“Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it” - Benjamin Franklin
"Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance" - George Bernard Shaw
Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.
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#6
Posted 23 April 2007 - 12:11 PM
Price pattern structure, as well as daily volume characteristics, do not support a wedge or diagonal.
Possible channel resistance? Maybe. (I see you adjusted the dates of your post while writing this) Possible snapback to what was the previous trend? Maybe. Many volume oscillators are scraping the ceiling right now. But observations like these can only compliment and have very little to do with Elliott methodology in the strictest sense.
Fib
Here it is, I think we can count five waves up now too.
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong
http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/
#7
Posted 23 April 2007 - 12:13 PM
I count 7.Here it is, I think we can count five waves up now too.
Fib
Better to ignore me than abhor me.
“Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it” - Benjamin Franklin
"Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance" - George Bernard Shaw
Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.
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#8
Posted 23 April 2007 - 12:18 PM
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=p76404918351&r=158.png
I count 7.Here it is, I think we can count five waves up now too.
Fib
Edited by Russ, 23 April 2007 - 12:23 PM.
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong
http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/
#9
Posted 23 April 2007 - 12:41 PM
Wave counting is the most difficult methodology out there because many fail to follow the rules laid out by Elliott himself and fail to identify correctly the degree of trend. For example, what you visually see as a 5 wave structure on the Dow breaks the most important rule of this analysis....third waves can not be the shortest wave. Aside from that, there is also uniformity between "like" market indexes that need to be considered. If you compare the Dow chart with that of the SPX chart, this same price pattern uniformity is lost.The Dow looks very much like 5. Wave counting has problems it is open to interpretation.
I will also point out that you are missing the most important element in all of this on both your charts - that of daily volume. Remember that Elliott provides a labeling to what we see as basic technical analysis, so if the basic TA isn't there, then you're count idea will surly fail to unwind as expected as well.
Fib
Better to ignore me than abhor me.
“Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it” - Benjamin Franklin
"Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance" - George Bernard Shaw
Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.
Technical Watch Subscriptions
#10
Posted 23 April 2007 - 12:52 PM
Are you saying that Elliot's rules have never been violated?
Wave counting is the most difficult methodology out there because many fail to follow the rules laid out by Elliott himself and fail to identify correctly the degree of trend. For example, what you visually see as a 5 wave structure on the Dow breaks the most important rule of this analysis....third waves can not be the shortest wave. Aside from that, there is also uniformity between "like" market indexes that need to be considered. If you compare the Dow chart with that of the SPX chart, this same price pattern uniformity is lost.The Dow looks very much like 5. Wave counting has problems it is open to interpretation.
I will also point out that you are missing the most important element in all of this on both your charts - that of daily volume. Remember that Elliott provides a labeling to what we see as basic technical analysis, so if the basic TA isn't there, then you're count idea will surly fail to unwind as expected as well.
Fib
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong
http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/