24 replies to this topic

[denleo]

Hey Mark, what is sentiment saying right now? I have no idea how to read it and everything I look at looks neutral from a sentiment stand point, which I interpret as no reversal of this up trend. Thanks Denleo

[OEXCHAOS]

Dennis, you're reading it about right. It's not much help here right now. Save this, we're no where near the ultimate top for this Bull market. This pullback, if it holds will tell us more about the potential for a correction. The Senticator, surprisingly, gave a Sell this week, however. The 10-day OEX also is suggesting some problems, too. We'll just have to see what they give us. M

[denleo]

Thanks Mark. Short-term, my indicators are saying that a pull back can happen (maybe already happening). But all time highs on SPX is hard to avoid after that. It is only about 5% above us. Denleo

[SemiBizz]

Bagholder Talk -

would get you out far too soon

(More interested in staying in the market)



Trader Talk -

Targets, of course, will get you out

(Take profits move on to the next trade)

[hiker]

when it comes to specific calls that pertain to the moment -

SemiBizz in his blog today called for a retest of 45.67, followed by a retracement.

so far, that is actionable and profitable trading ....in the moment..

http://semibizz.blogspot.com/

btw, declining tops are in play since Friday, and intraday today.

Edited by hiker, 23 April 2007 - 02:14 PM.

[OEXCHAOS]

Hey, if you want specific entry and exit points, we do that in ChartSmarts every day. Hit a homer today, too. BUT, I use sentiment there to work on exposure levels. Works well. We've been fully exposed or close to it for a long time. But it's insulting to call someone who is an intermediate-term trader a "bag holder". Especially since not that long ago I was posting lots of short-term day trades based PRIMARILY upon daily and intra-day sentiment. Mark

[SemiBizz]

Your point was you thought I should get my brains around sentiment. My point is that I'm a trader, sentiment doesn't help me derive the information I need to make smart decisions. Therefore, although parenthetically of interest, it doesn't help me. At best, sentiment is just a game played between traders as to who is the best guesser as to market direction. And why should the polls be faded? Exactly, because yor are naive to believe that traders express their true feelings and honest holdings. Any idiot in the World knows that the market fades the polls, and slants their vote in the direction of their positions and holdings. Short guys are bullish and long guys are bearish. So, you can sort all that out. See, the volume doesn't lie, it does give me entries and exits, targets and timing. Sentiment does jack for me on that. My experience is that if you stay in the game long enough, your position is going to get cut in half.or wiped out. Countless numbers of bagholders in JDSU, CSCO, INTC, MSFT are still only 1/3 or less of what their positions were worth in 2000 are ample proof !!

Edited by SemiBizz, 23 April 2007 - 02:45 PM.

[beta]

I dont see anything wrong with targets (unless directed at individual posters) and find them quite useful. Of course, it depends on your style. Mine is get in early, get out early (interesting how quiet the bullz were at SPX 1365 compared to now, with clear exceptions like Vector, Fib and Da Cheif). Nothing wrong with taking profits early, and moving onto the next trade. I think that's what SB's post is saying.

Edited by beta, 23 April 2007 - 02:46 PM.

[mss]

But it's insulting to call someone who is an intermediate-term trader a "bag holder".

Mark

Yep, other things too, and after awhile you just quit trying.
mss

[SemiBizz]

If the shoe fits wear it.. If you got enough in those bags, then you should be proud of it. What's the matter with being a bagholder? If being a bagholder (read buy and hold) works for you sticks and stones can break your bones but all the words in the world cannot insult you... On the other hand, if that bothers you let's take another look at what's in those bags...