7 replies to this topic

[OEXCHAOS]

The market has nothing but air above it and nobody believes it. We're looking amazingly like last August, sentiment-wise. The polls, too, are seeing less participation and that is also a sign that folks are disgusted by the rally. That implies that many are under exposed, not just here but all over the place, in more than one sentiment sector. Can we go down? Sure. But, it'll take some pretty bad news for selling to amount to much. Even then, unless things change, the market is likely to push higher fairly quickly after any weakness. How long will this scenario last? It's hard to tell. Maybe only days, but I suspect several weeks if not longer. Mark

[da_cheif]

US Market Timing Advisors Sentiment 25 April 2007 By Mike Burke & John Gray Overview In a modest surprise, the advisory service bulls pulled back to 51.1% after reaching 52.7% last week. That occurred despite the record high closes for all four Dow Jones Averages on Friday. We had been expecting more bullishness as the markets rallied. That action has been shown steadily increasing since the early March market low when the bulls were 45.5%. The bears moved up to 26.1% this week after slipping to 25.3% last time. That was the fewest bears since we counted 24.2% on February 23, as the averages were achieving their last highs. The advisors looking for a correction moved up to 22.8% from 22.0% a week ago. This group is short term bearish, but longer term bullish. They are looking for market dips as opportunities to buy. The sentiment remains positive. Our short-term indicators are all bullish and they have achieved the high chart levels where prior tops have formed. Throughout 2007 trading, advisors have been fairly quick to react to any market swing. They have avoided the high level of optimism shown in December 2006, which was the result of almost six months of steady, uninterrupted gains. The current sentiment has provided a wall of worry that markets traditionally climb. The late February decline below 50% for the bulls ended the previous bearish sentiment signal. A new surge in the bullish advisors above 55% will be a negative signal. We do expect that the services will be more bullish than they are now, when stocks make an important top. We consider ‘normal’ the reading for the bulls at 45% in a rising market, and we are not far above that level. The bears are still quite a good distance from their normal reading of 35%. The last very positive sentiment readings were shown in June 2006. For a single week, the bulls and bears were exactly even at 35.6%, and the DJ Industrials traded at 11,014. (That was also the week of the advisors-correction high.) That was a positive signal that stocks were trading at a low risk area and buying was in order. The difference between the bulls and bears contracted to 25.0%, from 27.4% last week. This is another pause from the generally expanding spread from a low of 16.6% on 14-March. That was the first prerequisite for a positive signal. Prior to that low, the spread had been generally contracting since it was above 38% in mid-December. The current expansion is the second good sign. We view a difference of 15%, or less, as bullish, and then an expansion from there [upturn on the line chart] as a buy signal. The recent mid-March low difference was in that ball park. It was ‘0” mid-June 2006 and the spread indicator held that positive signal until the difference exceeded 30% in October. We are still below that 30% danger level.

[.Blizzard]

The market has nothing but air above it and nobody believes it. We're looking amazingly like last August, sentiment-wise. The polls, too, are seeing less participation and that is also a sign that folks are disgusted by the rally. That implies that many are under exposed, not just here but all over the place, in more than one sentiment sector.

Can we go down? Sure.

But, it'll take some pretty bad news for selling to amount to much. Even then, unless things change, the market is likely to push higher fairly quickly after any weakness.

How long will this scenario last? It's hard to tell. Maybe only days, but I suspect several weeks if not longer.

Mark

This market is going to collapse again in a few days, max two weeks

I covered my ES short yesterday with 7 point loss.... when the 1480 gap was filled.

Now I am flat, but ready to load up a new BIG SHORT POSITION

The time window May 3/10 will provide the best set up Price/Time for a large decline

[da_cheif]

top top here anda top top there.......eee eye eee eye oh......snort

[BearItch]

And the senticator is bearish for the week? Oh my....

[pdx5]

So long as the boolishness continues until I can dump my remaining longs, I will have no complaints. Looking to dump longs last week of May.

[OEXCHAOS]

And the senticator is bearish for the week? Oh my....

I think that the Senticator got all it was going to get, intra-day Monday-Tuesday.

It's only a quick trading tool.

Mark

[skott]

hey chief, if you will keep posting the II sentiment I can cancel my sub and save some money.